[NL20-NL50] AQ 2p value bet river?

    • 13BlackCats
      Joined: 16.08.2008 Posts: 356
      PartyGaming - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      SB: $11.56
      BB: $8.53
      UTG: $24.30
      Hero (CO): $26.29
      BTN: $25.58

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has A:spade: Q:diamond:

      UTG calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $1.00

      Flop: ($2.85, 2 players) Q:club: A:heart: 7:heart:
      UTG checks, Hero bets $2.03, UTG calls $2.03

      Turn: ($6.91, 2 players) T:spade:
      UTG checks, Hero bets $5.00, UTG calls $5.00

      River: ($16.91, 2 players) 8:heart:
      UTG checks, [color=red]Hero ???

      Villain= 29/10/6.5/26 (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS) 62h

      One pot size bet left...is there any value in betting?
      We only get called by a few worse hands aka AJ and maybe A9 vs a lot of better ones so we should check
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      He seems like a bad player to me (29/10). I think he has many more AX hands than heart flushes. Therefore I think you have a value bet on the River.

      Main thing is the sizing. Should we shove or bet small? And should we bet/call or bet/fold if we bet small?

      1) Shove - Best option against a huge calling station. Don't think this guy may necessarily fall in that category.
      2) Bet to 7 or 8 and fold to a raise - Best option against someone who is passive, and may not necessarily call an allin with a wide range, but never folds AX to a halfpot bet
      3) Bet/call - Doesn't really make sense unless our small bet induces bluffs.

      I think my preferred option is 2, followed by 1. I just dont think this guy would raise River with worse than a flush but I could be wrong and he may shove with worse 2 pairs.