[NL20-NL50] NL25sh - AA thin valuebet/fold?

    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Hey guys,

      We're playing vs a passive fish.

      I think we should check behind the river and leave the thin value? We aren't sure if he's snapping 8x and if he isn't this is a terrible riverbet

      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2020192
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (MP): $25.00 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 3.6, Hands: 538002
      CO: $23.10 - VPIP: 31, PFR: 9, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 35
      BTN: $25.00 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 15, 3B: 3, AF: 3.8, Hands: 222
      SB: $62.44 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 20, 3B: 7, AF: 8.0, Hands: 108
      BB: $15.81 - VPIP: 42, PFR: 16, 3B: 0, AF: 3.0, Hands: 31
      UTG: $25.00 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 21, 3B: 10, AF: 1.9, Hands: 150

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with A :diamond: A :heart:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, 3 folds, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($1.60) 3 :spade: 8 :spade: 7 :heart: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25

      Turn: ($4.10) 7 :spade: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.95, BB calls $2.95

      River: ($10.00) J :diamond: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3.25, BB raises to $10.86, Hero folds
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Farmarchist,

      Flop: We can make it larger here for pure value/protection. He won't really fold anything that call 1.25 for lets say 1.55.

      Turn: While the turn brings the flush he still has a very wide range and thus a wide calling range so I would continue with my valuebet. Your 3/4 pot size is fine as well.

      River: I can't see villain shoving 8x, 99, TT over our smaller bet however he may shove missed draws or made hands (let's not forget that 9T got there, along with JJ and the flushes on the turn, he may also raise a 7x for value). So considering these items I would still bet/fold.

      I also think that your valuebet is fine, while thin we may still get called by enough worse hands. If you are really unsure about villains aggression and if you can bet/fold or not check back and make some notes however I do feel we can lose some value by doing that.