[NL2-NL10] Mid Set vs reg

    • Darkyd10
      Joined: 08.04.2010 Posts: 1,329
      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $11 (110 bb)
      BB: $10 (100 bb)
      UTG: $10 (100 bb)
      MP: $4.21 (42.1 bb)
      Hero (CO): $10 (100 bb)
      BTN: $13.88 (138.8 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 7 7
      UTG folds, MP calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, BTN calls $0.50, 3 folds

      Flop: ($1.25) 9 7 6 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.80, BTN raises to $2.20, Hero raises to $4, BTN raises to $13.38, Hero calls $5.50 and is all-in

      Turn: ($20.25) 8 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($20.25) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      $20.25 pot ($0.91 rake)
      Final Board: 9 7 6 8 Q
      Hero showed 7 7 and lost (-$10 net)
      BTN showed 9 9 and won $19.34 ($9.34 net)

      So he raises cbet 12.5% of times doesnt seem much and is a pretty normal reg, except for the fact he folds way less in flop and way more on turn

      38/100 for the stats of fcbet flop and fcbet turn

      hes 22/18/2.7
  • 2 replies
    • Darkyd10
      Joined: 08.04.2010 Posts: 1,329
      So i know he doesnt have T8 because hes a decent reg and hed never call that pf, same for 85

      On this flop when he raises me he has something like 66-JJ is the range i give him

      Since i didnt want to lose value from overpairs i 3bet flop, when he shoves though... he either has 66 or 99... more likely 99 though but you see him doing so with 66 aswell?
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Darkyd,

      Preflop: Looks fine.

      Flop: Since the board is somewhat connected we can bet here larger as well. I don't like calling the raise so 3-betting is the only option. The size we make is good because it can induce him to either call too light (if he bluffed/semibluffed) or raise as a bluff again.

      Since BTN overcalled your larger isolation preflop his range is usually full of pocket pairs and suited connectors (usually the big ones).

      I doubt he has many 76 type hands since there is no 76s combo left in the deck. And 97/96 are not part of his calling range. I also can't expect him to call many T8 hands (at most 4 combos of T8s).

      This leaves 99 and 66 for sets along with potentially 88, 98, TT, JJ. So 3-bet/going with the hand is perfectly fine.

      So worse case scenario, vs 99,66,T8s, we have 44% equity.

      Best case scenario: vs JJ-88,66,T8s,98s, we have 67% equity.