is a 40bb/100 win rate long term at any stakes (FR) possible?

    • tommygecko
      tommygecko
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2012 Posts: 1,229
      I had that WR for around 4000-5000 hands, I thought i could maintain such a win rate in the long run. And i just hit a 6 buyin downswing. At the end of it I thought that I just ran good for too long and was due a downswing. True?
  • 14 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      True
    • fuzzyfish
      fuzzyfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.01.2010 Posts: 862
      It's only possible at higher stakes, where people respect your raises.
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,921
      Hi guys,

      Just moving this thread to the relevant board :)


      Regards,
      Gary
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      you might want to go to Pokertableratings and search the top winners' names. Check out their winrates (people playing same stakes as you) and compare their winrates to yours.

      Lower limits tend to have higher proportion of rake paid, but still, competition is softer.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,901
      Originally posted by tommygecko
      I had that WR for around 4000-5000 hands, I thought i could maintain such a win rate in the long run. And i just hit a 6 buyin downswing. At the end of it I thought that I just ran good for too long and was due a downswing. True?
      Yes and no.

      Congrats on your 40bb/100 streak!
      I can sustain that winrate for maybe periods of up to oh, 3 hands maybe. :D

      It is certainly true that such a winrate is unsustainable over 100s of thousands of hands.

      It is not though that having a long run-good makes a downswing "due".

      The notion that previous success or failure influences future probability is called the "gambler's fallacy" and to a poker player can be a dangerous mental mistake.

      Remember that the odds on each and every hand are exactly the same each and every time and you'll be OK.

      Still, it is nice to get one's turn in the luck box every now and then.
    • tommygecko
      tommygecko
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2012 Posts: 1,229
      Seems like the 888 poker program knows that I had been running too good so it's intentionally giving me suckouts. Well of course i know it's not true but it just feels that way because the past 2 days i started each session with consecutive suckouts. Thankfully today I have a stop loss (: At least on Ipoker I'm running well so I just need to avoid 888 for a while. It's funny that just last week I've been running good at 888 and horrendous at Ipoker that I planned on quitting Ipoker for good. Strange things do happen in this world.
    • Alan883
      Alan883
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.12.2008 Posts: 1,941
      Well i think game is the game and it is the same on every network. maybe you have somewhere softer competion but shuffling cannot be much different from site to site
    • peterk9
      peterk9
      Global
      Joined: 21.10.2010 Posts: 27
      Be happy with 5bb
    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      nope. i think on micros on regular tables the max u can have is around 20bb/100 over a big sample. If ur playing zoom/rush, its very hard to even hit 10bb/100.

      i remember like 2 months ago, i ran @140bb/100 over 7k hands, which was pretty sick, then i moved up and lost it all in like 2500 hands, and moved back down :D
    • eudodo
      eudodo
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.05.2008 Posts: 230
      no
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      But after every hotstreak is a downswing, by definition
    • LemOn36
      LemOn36
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 07.02.2009 Posts: 1,348
      you werent due for a downswing, on average variance is the same for everyone. However 40aa long run is virtually impossible
    • mntooz
      mntooz
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 7
      not likely :f_cool:
    • timukasr
      timukasr
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.05.2007 Posts: 1,820
      Same here. Had 20bb/100 winrate at NL10, moved up to NL25 where I also had 15bb/100 winrate - I have to admit, I sucked out quite a lot and had amazing sessions, but then ofc the variance kicked in and my +$250 month turned into -$40 (coolers, suckouts, tilt etc). It's just standard variance and there's nothing really you can do (only stop tilt, work on your game). Somedays you win big, somedays you lose bigger - important is to have +$ despite all.