[NL20-NL50] A3 s ipo 3 bet pot nl 25 sh

    • dzikson999
      Joined: 17.08.2010 Posts: 532
      PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      UTG: $40.16
      MP: $29.84
      CO: $25.00
      Hero (BTN): $27.28
      SB: $28.33
      BB: $33.03

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has 3:club: A:club:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.62, SB raises to $1.60, fold, Hero calls $0.98

      Flop: ($3.45, 2 players) K:club: J:diamond: Q:club:
      SB bets $3.30, Hero calls $3.30

      Turn: ($10.05, 2 players) 9:heart:
      SB checks, Hero bets $4.00, SB calls $4.00

      River: ($18.05, 2 players) Q:spade:
      SB checks, Hero checks
      I have very small sample on villain but he looks loose 38/26 ag.f 2, 3 bet 15 %,Wtsd 33 % only 50 hands
      Is it better to bet turn or to take free card( by betting i could fold some Ak or AQ hands and maybe some sets but not to often)
      And on river i dont like Q so i gave up but should i consider another 1/3 pot bluff bet looking like i am going with 10x for thin value?
  • 3 replies
    • Saren113
      Joined: 06.03.2009 Posts: 2,867
      You need to build a pot for those times we hit our 12 outer. I would bet bigger on turn tho, why do you choose that size?
    • dzikson999
      Joined: 17.08.2010 Posts: 532
      I am not sure if i have clean 12 outer i would say i have less(J :club: is maybe not an out, and with 10 non :club: we could be splitting). And by this size i think i look strong but i agree its maybe mistake and its better to bet 60% off pot( cause then i will have less then pot bet for shove) i dont know maybe i should even check lets here judges.
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi dzikson,

      PF: Call seems fine, it's a small 3b
      F: I think you should just jam the Flop. It's not that likely he folds given his bet size, but if he does fold some small % of the time, your play becomes profitable already.

      I agree that you don't have a clean 12 outer (we chop a lot on a Ten with AK/AQ) and I would actually call the Flop if he had bet halfpot. But since he potted the flop, there is just so much more dead money in the pot and we win a lot of money when he folds.

      when he folds, you win 6.75
      when he calls, you have probably 35-40% equity vs his range. You would be risking ~25 more to win a pot of 54.50. So you would get back 35-40% X 54.50 on average. 25 - 0.375 (54.50) = ~-4.5

      I think we need him to fold somewhere between 35-40% for our shove to be profitable here. I think we probably have a profitable shove.

      Let x be required fold equity. 1-x represents the times he calls
      x (6.75) = (1-x) 4.5

      Just solve for x to find out how often he needs to fold for a shove to be good here. You can also use equilab to find out the equity of A3s on KJQcc vs a typical stack off range. I was just estimating.