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[NL20-NL50] NL25SH Fast 55

    • kempesKGB
      Joined: 15.11.2008 Posts: 2,559
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $24.54 (98.2 bb)
      SB: $11.04 (44.2 bb)
      BB: $26.63 (106.5 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $29.86 (119.4 bb)
      MP: $55.54 (222.2 bb)
      CO: $35.72 (142.9 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with 5 5
      Hero raises to $0.75, MP folds, CO calls $0.75, 3 folds

      Flop: ($1.85) 2 5 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.20, CO raises to $3, Hero calls $1.80

      Turn: ($7.85) 6 (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

      River: ($16.85) 4 (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $13, Hero ?

      Villain seems to be either a tight recreational player or a non-standard weak reg - 23/14 after 158 hands. He coldcalls really wide especially IP. Up to this hand he's raised 2 out of 8 cbets, both IP. He's more than capable of being aggressive postflop.

      On this type of flop there aren't many draws so most of his raising hands should be gutshots or just overcards. I don't really see any value in 3betting as he'll most likely fold, whereas calling allows him to continue bluffing.
      Turn improves some of his hands but I'm not going anywhere.
      The most interesting decision is on the river. I need to be good 30% of the time. His range is most definetly polarised and I think he would bet his bluffs a high percentage as my hand looks like an overpair. I'm close to the top of my range as cal only have 98s, 88 and 78s for a straight here. The problem is most of his bluffing hands have an 8 or a 3 in them. Plus his sizing - if he was bluffing I think he'd rather bet sth like 10$ to give himself a better price. Fold?
  • 3 replies
    • elchipriota
      Joined: 06.06.2012 Posts: 438
      That would be a call imo especially against an extremely aggressive player if you believe you can win 44% of the times.

      I dont like the check on the turn. If he is betting his straight draw make him pay and protect your hand at the same time.

      What is his 3bet range, do you think he would be 3beting a pair preflop or flat calling?

      What kind of hands do you think he would be 3beting on the flop? I cant see him 3beting with A3, or two high cards but I can put him on an overpair or an open ended. Pocket sevens and pocket 2's fall in line with his play as well.

      I would probably bet for value on turn and make him pay with an overpair or a draw. Also I dont think you should be very worried for a made straight on the turn as it is quite unlike vilain will be calling with 3,4 or 4,6 preflop. I also cant see how he can raise for value with a gutshot such as 9,8 on the flop.

      Coming to the river I think that is a tough spot as the 4 makes it ugly.

      Given the fact that he has the betting lead from the turn onwards and based on your description of him of being aggressive I feel that he can be bluff raise and raise with inferior hands at least 45% of the times which will make the call profitable.
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi KempesKGB,

      Preflop: Looks fine.

      Flop: I agree with you that he is most likely raising as a bluff/semibluff so I don't mind calling to let him bluff. If we've ever seen him overvalue overpairs though I'd 3-bet here to maximize value versus them.

      Turn: Since we aren't really sure how he plays many rivers (based on what you posted already) why aren't we just raising this turn? A lot of hands that he may have raised the flop with will find it hard to fold.

      I'd raise to about $11-$12.

      River: based on how passive we played our hand and how "scary" the board came down I think he can have bluffs in it and maybe even thin stupid valubets with 2p so I would not be folding.

      78 usually doesn't raise this flop and 88 doesn't either (if we assumed he'd raise 88 then he would raise 99+ which means we should 3-bet flop for value). The only other hands with a 8x that he can really have are 98 or maybe A8 (and 98 was there on the turn anyway).
    • kempesKGB
      Joined: 15.11.2008 Posts: 2,559
      I assume he doesn't raise overpairs but he may do it with hands like 78/76 some of the time.

      I don't think raising the turn is the best idea as I get him to fold all his bluffs, which will most likely fire the river and I'm not really that far ahead of his calling range.

      I don't think he's betting 2p or sets on this river, at least not with this sizing.