[NL2-NL10] Nl10 Sh - Kk

    • TinoLaan
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,411
      iPoker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BB: $10.40
      UTG: $12.52
      BTN: $16.27
      Hero (SB): $10.05

      Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has K:diamond: K:club:

      fold, BTN raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1.00, fold, BTN calls $0.70

      Flop: ($2.10, 2 players) 2:diamond: A:club: 6:club:
      Hero bets $1.50, BTN calls $1.50

      Turn: ($5.10, 2 players) 5:heart:
      Hero checks, BTN bets $3.00, fold

      BTN wins $4.76

      Villain is 27/17 over ~360 hands, and has serious trouble folding to 3bets, having folded only once out of 6 times.

      Should we consider bet/folding the turn? I definitely don't think he has only Ax in his range, so I won't really know where I'm at if I just check here. I think a bet on the turn can take it down against smaller pairs, that might otherwise bluff me off my hand if I check. I can also probably get some flush draws to fold, and if he calls with a flush draw I can probably get to a relatively cheap showdown if he misses on the river. And if he raises the turn, I am obviously beat and can just fold.

      Does this seem about right? Or am I thinking about this completely wrong?
  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Tino,

      Preflop: looks fine. Although if we think he calls much we should raise bigger preflop (12 bb or so) since we will only 3-bet pure value versus him.

      Do you expect villain to bet small pairs when you check to him (to turn them into bluffs)? I don't think that's the case with most villains in this spot. If he bets I'd say it's usually a Ax or semibluff/bluff.

      You have over 360 hands with the guy so we should have some sort of idea of how aggressive he is (for example when checked to)?

      If he is passive I'm fine ck/folding the turn because I can't see him betting much worse (and since he is fishy he will have tons of Ax hands here). And if he checks back we can vbet the river on most cards.
    • TinoLaan
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,411
      Yeah, I was definitely planning on check/folding here.

      Villain has been reasonably aggressive, but nothing too crazy. What you're saying makes sense, and I don't think this guy is aggressive enough to be betting much worse than an A.

      Thanks! :)