[NL20-NL50] NL25sh - 44 setmining 3B pot

    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Hey all,

      Stats:
      20/16/1kh reg
      3B vs MP 4% total 3B 4.9%
      2.47 AF
      71 % CB
      28 wtsd, 44 w$sd

      Preflop:
      Setmining since I get good odds.

      Flop:
      Ready to x/f but he checks. I instantly think of hands like QQ/KK

      Turn:
      I start bluffing with the plan of barreling river. I even have some EQ with GS.

      River:
      Stick to the plan. Not too big, not too small. Big enough to make him fold KK/QQ.

      $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
      PokerStars
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($52.43) 210bb
      Farmarchist (UTG+1) ($26.25) 105bb
      CO ($28.25) 113bb
      BTN ($10.50) 42bb
      SB ($25.10) 100bb
      BB ($33.16) 133bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Farmarchist is UTG+1 4:diamond: 4:spade:
      1 fold, Farmarchist raises to $0.75, CO raises to $2.25, 3 folds, Farmarchist calls $1.50

      Flop: 2:heart: A:spade: 3:club: ($4.85, 2 players)
      Farmarchist checks, CO checks

      Turn: 8:heart: ($4.85, 2 players)
      Farmarchist bets $2.75, CO calls $2.75

      River: J:club: ($10.35, 2 players)
      Farmarchist bets $6, CO goes all-in $23.25, Farmarchist folds

      Final Pot: $22.35

      CO wins $38.59 (net +$10.34)

      Farmarchist lost $11
  • 7 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Farmarchist,

      I personally don't like set mining in these spots. Sure we may get a decent price but we still need to put in 6 BB to see a flop. That means that 7 out 8 times we lose at least 6*7 or 42 BB. Add to that the BBs we can lose extra in pots like the one you played and it doesn't become very profitable. Also, when we hit the set it's not guaranteed that we get a lot from him (and of course we'll have set over set along with set versus str/flush).

      So the profit we would make in spots like these with set mining will be minimal at best (in my opinion).

      As played you have a guy that seems to like to go to showdown and can easily take this line with his Ax bluffy hands (that can't really play for stacks like AJo) and pockets.

      As the board came down do you really expect a guy like him to fold any? His check on the flop indicates almost always that he wants to go to showdown otherwise he'd simply cbet.

      So as played I'd continue ck/folding turn. And you can see that setmining here turned into a bad bluff and we lost even more money.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      personally don't like set mining in these spots. Sure we may get a decent price but we still need to put in 6 BB to see a flop. That means that 7 out 8 times we lose at least 6*7 or 42 BB. Add to that the BBs we can lose extra in pots like the one you played and it doesn't become very profitable. Also, when we hit the set it's not guaranteed that we get a lot from him (and of course we'll have set over set along with set versus str/flush).


      I was teached that vs tight 3bettors we can setmine if we get call12 (like call20 in single raised pots). Here we get better than call17!. I know that sometimes we don't get payed off so I wouldn't call if we get something like call13 (we're oop) but call17 seems fine vs such a nitty 3bettor.

      As played you have a guy that seems to like to go to showdown and can easily take this line with his Ax bluffy hands (that can't really play for stacks like AJo) and pockets.


      He only 3bets for value. I'd say QQ+ and AK. Maaaybe JJ

      As the board came down do you really expect a guy like him to fold any? His check on the flop indicates almost always that he wants to go to showdown otherwise he'd simply cbet.


      I expect him to fold QQ and KK to my turn + riverbarrel. I thought AK would most of the time just CB.


      And you can see that setmining here turned into a bad bluff and we lost even more money
      .

      This is a good argument though. I just thought that my postflopplay was profitable because I thought he'd fold QQ/KK all of the time. That was maybe a bit optimistic cause of his showdown stats :(
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Well it's true that you can call to setmine with the rules but you can see the rules apply if we don't lose other money postflop (like we did in this case :) )

      Why would you assume that he only 3-bets for value? Why can he not have bluffs in his range?

      Do you never bluff UTG from CO?

      And his WTSD is big and once he checks the flop I'd assume it's either a slowplay or a hand that will go to showdown so I will not bluff (pending other reads).
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      I bluff vs UTG sometimes but the guy looks rather nitty and had only 5% 3bet overall over a large sample.

      But I agree it should be a give-up due to his WTSD/W$SD
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Even though he has only 5% 3-bet overall I can see some bluffs in his range (we can also look at detailed 3-bet stats to see how much he 3-bets UTG).
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Even though he has only 5% 3-bet overall I can see some bluffs in his range (we can also look at detailed 3-bet stats to see how much he 3-bets UTG).
      Yeah I mentioned it. He had 4.0% 3bet vs MP. Indeed AK, QQ+ is 2.6% so he either bluffed 1.4% (or depolarized 3b with AQs, JJ) or hij had some good varriance.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Even though he has only 5% 3-bet overall I can see some bluffs in his range (we can also look at detailed 3-bet stats to see how much he 3-bets UTG).
      Yeah I mentioned it. He had 4.0% 3bet vs MP. Indeed AK, QQ+ is 2.6% so he either bluffed 1.4% (or depolarized 3b with AQs, JJ) or hij had some good varriance.
      Yes, I was more referring in general. And as you said he has some other hands besides QQ+, AK. I'd assume it's mostly bluffs in his range like weak Ax hands (even AJ/AT) or random hands.