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[NL20-NL50] NL25sh - QKs tough decision

    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Hey all,

      Stats:
      Guy is a nit over ~100 hands, playing 15/11 or something.

      River:
      Should I bet? I think he doesn't call Tx and he would have raised sets etc earlier so vs what do I bet? If I think about it I'm only betting vs lower flushes but being a nit he almost only has Ahi flushes

      $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
      PokerStars
      5 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($32.40) 130bb
      Farmarchist (CO) ($25) 100bb
      BTN ($23.58) 94bb
      SB ($36.77) 147bb
      BB ($27.37) 109bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Farmarchist is CO Q:spade: K:spade:
      1 fold, Farmarchist raises to $0.68, BTN calls $0.68, 2 folds

      Flop: 7:club: 2:spade: 10:spade: ($1.71, 2 players)
      Farmarchist bets $1, BTN calls $1

      Turn: 8:heart: ($3.71, 2 players)
      Farmarchist bets $2.25, BTN calls $2.25

      River: 5:spade: ($8.21, 2 players)
      Farmarchist bets $4.25, BTN raises to $11.25, Farmarchist folds

      Final Pot: $16.71

      BTN wins $22.96 (net +$7.78)

      Farmarchist lost $8.18
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi,

      river fold is really bad IMO. just call and expect to win some of the time. Your reads and sample sizes are all not rock solid, and it's definitely possible that he could

      1) have a worse flush (somewhat possible)
      2) be bluffing (unlikely but still very small chance given that you halfpotted river which doesn't look too strong).

      You have the 2nd nuts so I'm never folding.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      1) Howmuch would you bet on the river? Which worse hands do you expect to call?

      2) Do you think he'll call SC's as low as 89s? Let's say he could have 89s -> He'll probably raise the turn. If he has 78 he probably also raised already. So another possibilty is J9s but he could also raise that on flop or turn so I still think most of his range is AJss, A9ss, A8ss maybe the low A2ss-A4ss. We get great odds but I think it's close. Really bad I wouldn't say. I also assume that he has 0% bluffs.