[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH - JJ: 3bet pot

    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      UTG: 22/17/2
      15% open raise UTG
      41% fold vs 3bet overall (22%utg)
      6.5% overall 4bet range; 2.6% UTG (24)
      8.5k hands

      BB: 38/13/
      2.7% 3bet
      3.1% (45) cold 4bet
      58% fold vs cbet in 3bet pot
      46% wwsf
      29% wtsd
      2.4k hands

      BB: $44.77 (179.1 bb)
      UTG: $19.28 (77.1 bb)
      Hero (MP): $32.62 (130.5 bb)
      CO: $25 (100 bb)
      BTN: $27.16 (108.6 bb)
      SB: $16.54 (66.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with J:heart: J:diamond:
      UTG raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2, 3 folds, BB calls $1.75, UTG calls $1.25

      Flop: ($6.10) 8:club: 2:spade: 7:diamond: (3 players)
      BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $3.10, BB calls $3.10, UTG folds

      Turn: ($12.30) 8:heart: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $6.30, BB calls $6.30

      River: ($24.90) 5:club: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero

      I think UTG is a MSS that was a bit deep at the time. Do you think its too loose to 3bet/5bet here? 3bet/fold vs him?
      Think i should be betting more on the flop and on the turn.
      There is value on the river for one more bet?
  • 6 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi lunitis,

      PF: Well I want to say it's too loose, but given his really low fold vs 3bet I think it could be good.

      T: I think you should be pot controlling here. I think he has QQ sometimes, and very rarely KK/AA. He also could have many 8X hands, so I check turn and bet the River.

      Only hands you beat here are TT/99 and he has way more potential combos of other stuff like A8s 98s T8s QQ AA KK
    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      So you are folding the river after checking the turn...?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Nope, I check Turn to pot control. My plan is to get 2 bets in the pot. So if he bets river i call, if he checks i bet.

      As played since you already put in 2 bets on F and T, i check River.
    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      Can you explain the call on the river please.
      If we dont bet the turn because we think we are behind most of the time i dont see how can we call the river, even more because he might not bet hands like 99-TT.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      He could have TT/99, he could have 7X which bets himself, he could have AK or AQ. When we call the River and bluff catch we only need to win 25-33% of the time (assuming he bets 50-100% of the pot size).
    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Originally posted by mbml
      He could have TT/99, he could have 7X which bets himself, he could have AK or AQ. When we call the River and bluff catch we only need to win 25-33% of the time (assuming he bets 50-100% of the pot size).
      I still don't understand the upside of chk back turn and call river. If we are calling river then it would be a lot better to just b/f turn, he will snap call with 7x, TT/99 and 9T and 56. I don't see a reason to pot control. Betting turn and checking back river seems optimal to me.