Bubble Play Q.

    • mattisks
      mattisks
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      Joined: 14.06.2009 Posts: 506
      I got to bubble phase and got dealt AK. With stack around 8 bigs. I could easily get into money getting 5x my BI but doubling up was perhaps better idea as main target always should be 1st place, not just cashing..

      I always struggle in this spot though (thought wise). I can cash and then try, right? Really hard to say what is better. Between 50th & 10th is no change at all.

      Anyway I do my "unnecessary" shove and facing unnecessary call with J9o and how it is on stars, I am waving good bye.

      What would you do in my spot given that ur stack is under 10 bigs?

      A/ play for win?
      B/ play for cash and then open up?
  • 17 replies
    • Mikus8
      Mikus8
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      Joined: 06.10.2011 Posts: 240
      A, always

      mincashing is not how you profit make profit playing mtt's
    • TinoLaan
      TinoLaan
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      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,411
      Always the first one. Would you rather win $2 or $400 (depends on stakes you play, I guess)? Seems like a pretty easy decision to me ;)

      Like Mikus said, you're not going to profit much if at all if you're only trying to mincash every time. If you want to be succesfull in MTTs, you need to play to win, which requires you to be aggressive. That means you just can't fold here in this situation. If you lose, too bad. Shit happens. If you win, you may find yourself in a great position to win the tournament. And especially if they're calling with J9o and other kind of trashy hands, you'll make a lot of money if you get your stack in in such situations!

      If you want to cash big in a tournament, you just can't chicken out like this all the time. It's just going to cost you tons of equity.
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
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      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,923
      Hey guys,

      I'm moving this to our tournament strategy board. Please be careful where you post - please avail of our strategy boards. General Poker Discussion is reserved for epic threads, news and promotions :)


      Regards,
      Gary
    • mattisks
      mattisks
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      Joined: 14.06.2009 Posts: 506
      Originally posted by TinoLaan
      Always the first one. Would you rather win $2 or $400 (depends on stakes you play, I guess)? Seems like a pretty easy decision to me ;)

      Like Mikus said, you're not going to profit much if at all if you're only trying to mincash every time. If you want to be succesfull in MTTs, you need to play to win, which requires you to be aggressive. That means you just can't fold here in this situation. If you lose, too bad. Shit happens. If you win, you may find yourself in a great position to win the tournament. And especially if they're calling with J9o and other kind of trashy hands, you'll make a lot of money if you get your stack in in such situations!

      If you want to cash big in a tournament, you just can't chicken out like this all the time. It's just going to cost you tons of equity.
      now the only problem remains should I play my game and be spew tard and push J9o if I feel its a good spot to do so?

      I have to agree with A/ in the end. Tried few min cashes but last hand I literally folded myself into that cash.. If I took some riks here and there who knows :)
    • TinoLaan
      TinoLaan
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      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,411
      In some cases, yes, it will be profitable to open-shove J9o pre flop. In other cases it won't. It depends heavily on the situation.

      Yes, you definitely have to take some risks. But that's part of the game. Sometimes you're going to bust, sometimes you'll run good and ship the tournament. Though it may mean you won't cash as often, your cashes will generally be bigger if you play more aggressively.

      I definitely recommend you do so! :D
    • Mikus8
      Mikus8
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      Joined: 06.10.2011 Posts: 240
      Yes, bubble shouldn't affect you at all, I recommend don't look at tournament lobby at all or once you've won.
    • TinoLaan
      TinoLaan
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      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,411
      Look at it this way: The way you are playing now allows people to abuse you on the bubble. Instead, you want to be the one abusing other people on the bubble, because there's lots and lots of bubble equity! Make use of it, be aggressive!
    • mattisks
      mattisks
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      Joined: 14.06.2009 Posts: 506
      it seems as playing such hands is better anyway. Esp. on stars. Everytime I went higher up in the tournament it wasn't for big hands anyway. It was for this sh'tty little push with my calling range.

      I wouldn't even like to look at how my QQ+ AK range does against random range on stars.. Unless they're folding I can eat a cookie and reload for another tourney :f_biggrin:
    • Asaban
      Asaban
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      Joined: 22.09.2006 Posts: 8,241
      Originally posted by Mikus8
      Yes, bubble shouldn't affect you at all, I recommend don't look at tournament lobby at all or once you've won.
      Well - thats just wrong =)

      OF COURSE, the bubble is important and OF COURSE you have to play tighter when it approaches and you are among the shortstacks. Ignoring bubble factors will cost you a lot of money in the long run.

      Sure, a push would be +EV if you look at the ChipEV. Unfortunately that's not the right number to look at. You have to check the $EV! The $EV, which takes ICM into consideration, will give you an idea about the push being good or not. It's no perfect answer since it leaves out future game aspects and such. Still it's a way better indicator then ChipEV.

      Doubling up won't put you in a situation where you will get at least 10th and therefore get way more money. Your $EV(Push/WinShowDown) won't differ very much (and won't nearly double itself) compared to your $EV(Fold) since you could fold itm easily. At the same time your $EV(Push/Loose) is 0$. Therefore you will need way more equity then you normally would to make the push profitable.

      In the hand you described you would most likely have to push since AK is way too good and the bubble will only make the push less profitable but not -EV.
      At the same time the bubble factor is quite big since you normally face ITM bubbles for two buyins or less. 5 buyins is a lot and can't be ignored.
      You should push very tight in this situation as long as you are not among the chip leaders. Obv you have to call even tighter.

      Of course, your ranges also depend on avg stack sizes, structure, opponents and things like table flow and image.

      Stating that you should always ignore ITM bubbles is totally wrong and a big leak.

      Regards,
      Asaban
    • mattisks
      mattisks
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      Joined: 14.06.2009 Posts: 506
      Originally posted by Asaban
      Originally posted by Mikus8
      Yes, bubble shouldn't affect you at all, I recommend don't look at tournament lobby at all or once you've won.
      Well - thats just wrong =)

      OF COURSE, the bubble is important and OF COURSE you have to play tighter when it approaches and you are among the shortstacks. Ignoring bubble factors will cost you a lot of money in the long run.

      Sure, a push would be +EV if you look at the ChipEV. Unfortunately that's not the right number to look at. You have to check the $EV! The $EV, which takes ICM into consideration, will give you an idea about the push being good or not. It's no perfect answer since it leaves out future game aspects and such. Still it's a way better indicator then ChipEV.

      Doubling up won't put you in a situation where you will get at least 10th and therefore get way more money. Your $EV(Push/WinShowDown) won't differ very much (and won't nearly double itself) compared to your $EV(Fold) since you could fold itm easily. At the same time your $EV(Push/Loose) is 0$. Therefore you will need way more equity then you normally would to make the push profitable.

      In the hand you described you would most likely have to push since AK is way too good and the bubble will only make the push less profitable but not -EV.
      At the same time the bubble factor is quite big since you normally face ITM bubbles for two buyins or less. 5 buyins is a lot and can't be ignored.
      You should push very tight in this situation as long as you are not among the chip leaders. Obv you have to call even tighter.

      Of course, your ranges also depend on avg stack sizes, structure, opponents and things like table flow and image.

      Stating that you should always ignore ITM bubbles is totally wrong and a big leak.

      Regards,
      Asaban
      I sort of agree with you as well. That is why I have this huge problem sometimes bc of risk/reward ratio in certain spots.

      Stars doesn't make it any easier as so far I've got only busto with AA vs KTs, J5 vs TT on flop AJx with turn J and couple more spots with average 70%. Theory is good thing in the end its RNG that decides the outcome and stars gives me such a nice cooler periods one would quit. :s_evil:

      It makes me believe that all ITMs I took yesterday were perhaps better than if I gambled at certain times trying to get the 1st. When I got ITM and tried then coolers were back anyway.

      I might as well try approach one day play for win & second day play for ITMs. And compare results in LR for myself.

      When am thinking about it. U can't win tournament until you get into HU (which is essentialy truth) so maybe ur point about not ignoring any opportunity to cash might be true. I'm always trying to get into top ten as there is most money to be made so why to ignore ITM cashes in between?
    • Asaban
      Asaban
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      Joined: 22.09.2006 Posts: 8,241
      You shouldn't play for 1st place or ITM at any time. You should always play for maximum profit. There is a "right" way to do it. Ignoring bubble factors is not the right thing to do. At the same time it's absolutely wrong to play for ITM. You won't make money this way.

      You always have to choose the best way to go. In the end it pretty much comes down to ICM calculations in these spots. So this should be the thing you should work on and improve.

      Regards,
      Asaban
    • Mikus8
      Mikus8
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      Joined: 06.10.2011 Posts: 240
      .
    • Mikus8
      Mikus8
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      Joined: 06.10.2011 Posts: 240
      Originally posted by Asaban
      You shouldn't play for 1st place or ITM at any time. You should always play for maximum profit.
      So maximum profit isn't 1st place then?

      Anyways, I would like to thank you guys for tightening up and calculating your mincash EV when bubble is close :s_love: Building stacks would be so much harder if you played back at them aggressors.
    • TinoLaan
      TinoLaan
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      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,411
      You shouldn't play for 1st place or ITM at any time. You should always play for maximum profit.
      So maximum profit isn't 1st place then?
      If I were to guess, I think what he means is that if you are in a tournament that has players generally above your skill level, you should not expect to be able to shoot for first. In such a tournament (maybe you got in through a satellite or something), it may be better to just try and get some money.

      Say you win an entry into a $200 tournament through a $5 satellite, and you have the option on the bubble of either winning $300 or having a 65% to bust out, it might be better to just try to get ITM, because even if you do double up, the other players are better than you anyway, so your EV against them is pretty bad anyway. Might as well take the $300.

      It does make some sense, I guess, if that is what he meant :)
    • Asaban
      Asaban
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      Joined: 22.09.2006 Posts: 8,241
      @Mikus: Please stay constructive and stop trolling/provocations.

      @topic:
      You won't reach first place just because you made some (stupid) shoves against ICM. "Playing for the win" is never a good argument.
      Obv first place means most $$$. At the same time mincashes sum up quite a bit. It's true, that ICM is partially outnumbered by the future game aspect. Still ICM is an important factor that can't be ignored. If you ignore it you will lose a lot of value.
      It's not maxEV to play for the win in most cases. Therefore it can't be the way of maximum profit.

      The most extreme example where ITM finishes are way more important then any chip lead would be satellites. The general concept can be adjusted to all kinds of tournaments.
    • mattisks
      mattisks
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      Joined: 14.06.2009 Posts: 506
      Originally posted by TinoLaan
      You shouldn't play for 1st place or ITM at any time. You should always play for maximum profit.
      So maximum profit isn't 1st place then?
      If I were to guess, I think what he means is that if you are in a tournament that has players generally above your skill level, you should not expect to be able to shoot for first. In such a tournament (maybe you got in through a satellite or something), it may be better to just try and get some money.

      Say you win an entry into a $200 tournament through a $5 satellite, and you have the option on the bubble of either winning $300 or having a 65% to bust out, it might be better to just try to get ITM, because even if you do double up, the other players are better than you anyway, so your EV against them is pretty bad anyway. Might as well take the $300.

      It does make some sense, I guess, if that is what he meant :)
      I am sure no one there was much beyond my own skill level. It was rather thinking: stars. I know how I run here. I can push Aces and say good bye. If its just 3 spots I am trying to tick my clock down hoping I will bubble in but if not what to do. U have to do the right move and face the usual.

      I know this perception is kinda wrong but most often than not was true. Remembering bubbling on stars/tilt with aces/kings to some ridicoulous fullhouse coming right from top of the K6o & lower.

      I switched for site that runs somewhat standard and offers me same level stake levels I like to play. Bad beats are possible everywhere but finally feeling that I can play my own game without worrying about tweked software and let it to variance is much better than anything else.

      Only thing that makes me sad is when I have tough decision and don't know where am standing.. I have very short time to make good decision and getting real time stats about my position in the tournament is not readily available to me. I have to figure out this stuff. Coz I was thinking we're ITM and made my decision based on that and realized I am yet 6 places way too early :s_evil:
    • mattisks
      mattisks
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      Joined: 14.06.2009 Posts: 506
      Originally posted by Asaban
      @Mikus: Please stay constructive and stop trolling/provocations.

      @topic:
      You won't reach first place just because you made some (stupid) shoves against ICM. "Playing for the win" is never a good argument.
      Obv first place means most $$$. At the same time mincashes sum up quite a bit. It's true, that ICM is partially outnumbered by the future game aspect. Still ICM is an important factor that can't be ignored. If you ignore it you will lose a lot of value.
      It's not maxEV to play for the win in most cases. Therefore it can't be the way of maximum profit.

      The most extreme example where ITM finishes are way more important then any chip lead would be satellites. The general concept can be adjusted to all kinds of tournaments.
      great advice again! :f_love: