AA x Unknown

    • boozaf
      Joined: 02.12.2009 Posts: 140

      My question is fairly straightforward: is it reasonable to just shove preflop X unknown only with AA?

      I guess I might just be passing through an unlucky phase but I'm down 70$ (which is around 25% of my total bankroll) just by shoving preflop with KK and facing AA. :f_frown:

      I wonder if it's just a bad phase or it could be reasonable to shove just AA x when facing unknown.

  • 4 replies
    • badgerer
      Joined: 29.03.2010 Posts: 555
      theres a video u might be interested that covers this topic but i can't link to it. just type 'Nikachu Strategy' into youtube and watch the first hit.
    • DrDunne
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,378
      yeah it's profitable. this is because you are never playing against a single hand - people have a range of hands that they play the same (or very similar) way. for example, when you get it in people are stacking off not only with KK OR AA, but QQ+ and AK also. so with your range of KK+, if you are against a range of QQ+, AKs, AKo, you have 70% equity. given how it's stats, humans can greatly underestimate the possibility of runouts of the same result. so just stick with it and keep making your profitable play.

      p.s. i'm not sure what strategy you are using, but the above should still apply :)
    • faronel
      Joined: 13.07.2011 Posts: 1,186
      Boozaf, can you please specify the scenario of your shove: do I get it right that you just open-shove with KK-AA instead of making a standard raise? Or you are talking about 4-bet/5-bet scenarios (i.e. villain raised, you 3-bet, he 4-bets, you go all-in)?

      If you are talking about open-shove then this is very simple: if you were a villain and someone shoved 100B infront of you. With what hand would call him down?
      I am quite sure that it would seem only reasonable to call it down with premium hands (mostly KK-AA only versus unknown). Therefore, you yourself shove with KK-AA, you are not getting a call from a worse hand at most of the times.

      However, if you talk about 4-bet/5-bet scenarios then it depends. I suppose you are playing NL10? If the villain is unknown (you have not played with him before much), then there is no way to lay down KK-AA on NL10. Just ship it in and be happy! You are still making a profit over the longer period of time against random villains, since in many scenarios you can be against JJ, QQ, AKo-AKs, AQs...
      But if you know villain a little, like that he raises only with under 10% of hands from that position and only4-bets 0-1% of hands after someones 3bet (e.g. you made a 3bet with KK), then you need to ask yourself if there is any sense going broke there. Provided, hand sample is accounted for (not too small for 3-bet, 4-bet stats).
      So, examples:

      1) Hero UTG raises with KK
      Villain MP VPIP 9%, RFI 6%, 3bet 1% - hand sample - 1500 hands
      Villain 3bets. This is a clear case where his 3-bet range is so narrow that you can expect only the best combos. I most likely would only call his 3bet and re-evaluate flop. Or if I have some special notes, I would lay it down right here.

      2) Hero MP with KK
      Villain UTG VPIP 16%, PFI 12%, 4-bet 5% - hand sample - 1500 hands
      Villain raises, Hero 3-bets, Villain 4-bets. We can cold-call in position and most likely play for stacks post-flop or we can shove it right here.

      3) Hero UTG raises with KK
      Villain MP unknown
      Villain 3bets. Since it is unknown, I am still going for 4-bet/broke, especially out of positon.

      4) Hero MP with KK
      Villain UTG unknown.
      Villain raises, hero 3-bets, villain 4-bets. Same as #2 - versus unknown I am still not laying down my premium... :)
    • Imimba1
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      I actually made a thread about this not a long time ago somewhere around here. It seems like when you AND your opponent go AI before the flop, it's -EV.