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[NL2-NL10] NL2 AA OoP

    • Gamer135
      Joined: 28.07.2008 Posts: 253
      Villain's VPIP=14.6, AF=2.75, PFR=4.9 over 80 hands.

      $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
      9 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by

      UTG ($2.50) 125bb
      Hero (UTG+1) ($2.74) 137bb
      MP1 ($0.77) 39bb
      MP2 ($2.53) 127bb
      MP3 ($0.97) 49bb
      CO ($0.80) 40bb
      BTN ($0.70) 35bb
      SB ($1.85) 93bb
      BB ($2.36) 118bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.03, 9 players) Hero is UTG+1 A:spade: A:club:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $0.06, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.06, 5 folds

      Flop: 8:heart: 7:club: Q:club: ($0.15, 2 players)
      Hero bets $0.10, MP2 calls $0.10

      Turn: 2:club: ($0.35, 2 players)
      Hero bets $0.18, MP2 raises to $0.36, Hero calls $0.18

      River: Q:heart: ($1.07, 2 players)
      Hero checks, MP2 bets $0.75, $0.75 to Hero ($2.22)?

      I think I misplayed the turn here. Should I have bet more - say, $.24 and fold to a raise? As played, should I have called the raise at all?

      The paired queens on the river scared me, since AQ was definitely in his range. Based on his aggression on the turn he may have already hit a flush draw or a set/full house, too. Should I have made a probe bet here, or would check/fold be all right?
  • 4 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi Gamer135,

      Turn: I agree that your bet is too small. I would bet 24cents as you mentioned. But if he minraises we are definitely committed and I would call.

      Pot (35 cents)
      Hero bets 24cents, MP2 raises to 48cents.

      Pot odds = 24/(48+48+35) = 18.3%

      Even without taking into account implied pot odds, I think you have enough direct pot odds to call here and try hitting another club. and maybe some super small % of the time (5-10%) we may be up against some silly bluff and have the best hand.

      On the river, we now lose to QX even (but I think that's irrelevant cos I think his turn raising range is mostly flushes or sets). so i just fold. We were merely hoping that

      1) We hit a flush. If he has 2 clubs then we are left with 7 club cards out of 46 cards left in the deck (7/46 = 15%). If he has no clubs, then we are left with (9/46 cards = 19.6%)
      2) He has a weaker hand and he gives up on the River (5% of the time?)

      Hope this helps.
    • Alan883
      Joined: 03.12.2008 Posts: 1,941
      Originally posted by mbml

      Pot odds = 24/(48+48+35) = 18.3%

      i am calculationg pot odds my way something like:

      we have 35 already in pot
      Pot (35 cents)
      Hero bets 24cents, MP2 raises to 48cents.

      Pot odds = 24/(48+24+35) = 22,4%

      There is not much difference but i just want to know if you just made a little mistake or am i wrong with calculation?

    • bruslar
      Joined: 30.10.2011 Posts: 965
      You are wrong :)

      If you call villain raise, you can win 35(pot) + 24(your bet) + 48(villain raise) + 24(your call)... so you risk 24 for 131 and you need be better than 24/131 = 18,3%.
    • Alan883
      Joined: 03.12.2008 Posts: 1,941
      Yes my mistake. Thanks.