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[NL20-NL50] NL25sh - barrel twice?

    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Hi!

      Stats:
      Solid villain over a small sample.

      Preflop:
      Standard 3B right? Especially since we don't know his postfloptendencies

      Flop:
      I think I have to decide right here wheter to bet twice or check/fold. With my GS and the board being pretty dry I chose to go for 2 barrels.

      Turn:
      Stick to the plan.

      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2022728
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $28.10 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 49
      MP: $26.52 - VPIP: 12, PFR: 11, 3B: 5, AF: 0.5, Hands: 141
      CO: $34.73 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 51
      BTN: $34.56 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 3.3, Hands: 51
      Hero (SB): $29.13 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 3.6, Hands: 540805
      BB: $45.16 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 6, AF: 2.7, Hands: 804

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with Q :club: J :club:
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.65, 1 fold, CO calls $1.90

      Flop: ($5.55) K :diamond: 9 :spade: 9 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.00, CO calls $3

      Turn: ($11.55) 2 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $6.00
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi,

      Flop: I don't agree with your analysis. I think Flop is always a bet with it being quite dry, King high + rainbow + paired + you have a gutshot.

      Turn is dependent on his Flop range. If it's wide and I expect him to fold a ton on the Turn, Then I barrel. Remember with a half pot bet we only need him to fold ~33% of his range.

      If you think he has some AJ/AQ and perhaps some QJs/JTs/QTs or TT/JJ which he may fold to a 2nd barrel on the turn and that comprises >33% of his Flop calling range, then this would be a bet. Don't forget you could also improve to a straight on the River.

      In short, you will need to have a good idea of his PF range (look at his opening range and call vs 3bet %), as well as his Flop continuation range (fold to F cbet in 3bet pots).

      Given the info you provided, I just check/fold the Turn cos I think such tighter guys aren't floating the Flop light so I think he has KQ a lot.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Well, does 20/16 over a small sample looks tight to you?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      it sure does. his 3bet is also 0% (which may not say anything), but at least everything seems to be pointing the fact that he's nitty.