[NL2-NL10] AJ – Flop Top Two-Pair, Turn K, River K, Opp. Shoves

    • Raknyo
      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 422
      PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 163.5 BB
      SB: 54.5 BB
      BB: 51 BB
      UTG: 105.5 BB
      MP: 100 BB
      Hero (CO): 111.5 BB

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has A:spade: J:club:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

      Flop: (6.5BB, 2 players) A:diamond: J:spade: 6:club:
      BB checks, Hero bets 4.5 BB, BB calls 4.5 BB

      Turn: (15.5BB, 2 players) K:spade:
      BB checks, Hero bets 10 BB, BB calls 10 BB

      River: (35.5BB, 2 players) K:heart:
      BB bets 33.5 BB and is all-in, fold

      PF: Got two short-stacks in the blinds so I raise to 3BB instead of my usual 4BB. I am raising for value since I can expect unknowns to call with dominated hands.

      F: I flop a strong hand so my main focus is concentrating on getting maximum value. My bet also protects my hand from any gutshots and any pairs which can draw to three-of-a-kind.

      After BB calls, I'd put him on the following range: {Ax, KQ, QT+, J8+, JJ or 66}

      T: My hand is still strong, only QT has over-taken me and lots of my opponent's range has picked up extra equity so I can definitely bet again (possibly a little bigger: 11.5BB) to gain maximum value and also to protect my hand from any gutshots.

      R: BB donk-shoves, if they do this with Ax then I only split the pot with them (unless they have AQ or AK, though AK is unlikely). It would also make sense for BB to do this with KJ, KQ and QT, since nearly all of these hands beat me and I will most likely only split the pot at best, I choose to fold.
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi Rakyno,

      Do you have any reads on his passivity? IMO this line looks a lot like KQ/KT to me. Maybe even QT.

      I am being fairly optimistic with my estimates here, giving him a decent number of worse AX hands. And you are right, we are chopping with all those hands so our equity isn't that great (calling here to split doesn't seem so good).

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 22.22% 0.00% 22.22% AsJc
      MP3 77.78% 55.56% 22.22% AQs, ATs-A7s, KQs, KTs, QTs, AQo, ATo-A7o, KQo, KTo, QTo

      We are getting 32% pot odds so this is a clear fold.

      Great play!