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[NL2-NL10] NL10 AQo Overvaluing Top Pair

    • PhoenixPhreak
      Joined: 15.04.2011 Posts: 335
      Villain is pretty tight 14/8/6 for 104hands.

      PokerStars - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      LP: $10.00
      CO: $10.00
      BTN: $11.05
      SB: $10.46
      BB: $10.62
      UTG: $5.79
      Hero (UTG+1): $10.73
      MP: $10.70
      MP+1: $6.91

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has Q:spade: A:diamond:

      UTG calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, MP+1 calls $0.50, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.65, 3 players) 9:diamond: 2:club: A:heart:
      UTG checks, Hero bets $0.90, MP+1 calls $0.90, fold

      Turn: ($3.45, 2 players) 4:heart:
      Hero bets $1.85, MP+1 raises to $3.70, Hero raises to $5.55, MP+1 calls $1.81 and is all-in

      River: ($14.47, 2 players) K:diamond:

      I think I already know my problem, but I really wanted to check with a judge. Basically, I am overvaluing top pair. I hope my flop bet size was okay. I think my turn bet was a little small too, and then getting it in versus such a tight player when they raise me on the turn was unwise.
      Am I critiquing it correctly?
  • 3 replies
    • kymupa
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364

      Preflop raising is fine.

      I'd bet around $1.2 on the flop. Tons of worse Ax to get value from.

      I'd bet around $2.3 on the turn.
      When he raises it gets ugly and I think folding against unknown won't be bad.

    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      standard bet/fold turn spot. even if he min checkraises with 50bb it would be super tough spot.
    • grabek1985
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 326
      104 hands is not enough to assume tightness of that level, ie. we assume 9-handed, for a tight (but not ultratight) player, the range includes {pp, AJs, AQ , AK}, ie. there are not tons of weaker Ax to call. One.

      Given your range and assuming preflop fit-or-fold 9-handed, there will not be many hands villain catches bluff with, as cc 3 streets line vs UTG is very unprofitable. Two.

      As noted, bet on the flop might be called by wider range, thus bigger sizing for value, and in general, due to your range. Three.

      Sizing on the turn to induce calls from pp and in the same time fold (bf) to raises as there are no draws on board, bdfd is not possible unless its occasionaly (incorrectly) 9h8h and pure bluffs vs. your position's range are rare, hence bf. Four.