[NL20-NL50] [sh] nl 50 bluff catch vs unk fish

    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      On Game, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (MP): $49.29 (98.6 bb)
      CO: $51.91 (103.8 bb)
      BTN: $49.75 (99.5 bb)
      SB: $24.60 (49.2 bb)
      BB: $65.66 (131.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with J J
      Hero raises to $1.75, 3 folds, BB calls $1.25

      Flop: ($3.75) 6 4 K (2 players)
      BB bets $2, Hero calls $2

      Turn: ($7.75) 8 (2 players)
      BB bets $5.75, Hero calls $5.75

      River: ($19.25) A (2 players)
      BB bets $14.50, Hero calls $14.50

      $48.25 pot ($2.41 rake)
      Final Board: 6 4 K 8 A
      Hero mucked J J and lost (-$24 net)
      BB showed 6 6 and won $45.84 ($21.84 net)

      Villain was pretty much unknown 31/15 after 14 hands

      On the river I thought that he either has 2p+ that he played like this : AK, 68s, K6s; set, rivered Ace or a busted draw or a dumb bluff all the way. After writing down all the value combos it looks like he can still have a decent amount of value hands. Needing 30%+ equity what is your play here?
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi Demarcohsp.

      I don't mind your call at all. He is representing nut flush draw, some AX 2pair hands (i don't think he has AK often), and busted draws.

      While I don't expect to be ahead that often, I think we may be good 30% of the time which is enough to call. The thing is that I don't give him credit for KX after the River Ace so I think he reps way more bluffs than real hands.

      This is also a pretty silly line to use as a set and I won't give people credit for it until they prove otherwise.
    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      ^ My thought process expressed more clearly.