[NL20-NL50] NL25 - QQ: vs c/r turn

    • Lunitis
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,131
      46% fold vs cbet flop
      24% fold vs cbet turn
      43% wwsf
      470 hands

      BB: $57.95 (231.8 bb)
      MP: $13.81 (55.2 bb)
      CO: $12.52 (50.1 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $35.44 (141.8 bb)
      SB: $9.75 (39 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q:heart: Q:spade:
      MP folds, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, CO calls $0.75

      Flop: ($2.35) J:diamond: 6:heart: T:heart: (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $1.80, CO calls $1.80

      Turn: ($5.95) 8:spade: (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $3.30, CO raises to $9.72 and is all-in, Hero

      I tend to fold a lot to c/r turn, but here its too much aint? Im behind most of the time, but 25% odds... If he have AJ other than 2par sets and st8s my call its at least break even i think.
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694

      I think this is a call here. Not thrilled about it, but this is purely a pot odds issue.
      Pot odds: 6.50/25 = 25%

      I think if he min-checkraised to 6.60, I would just fold. In my experience that is 2 pairs + 90%+ of the time. The same rules apply when mid-stackers minCR the Turn and it's almost the same as if he were full-stacked.

      On the other hand, in this exact situation, when he check/jams with a 50bb stack, I see JX here at least 25-35% of the time. I think you are committed here and thus you need to call.