[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH - AT: c/raising light for value

    • Lunitis
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,131
      38% steal from BU
      29% fold vs 3bet
      57% fold cbet vs raise
      74% cbet flop
      56% cbet turn
      18% agg% river
      27% wtsd
      39% wwsf
      855 hands

      BTN: $22.74 (91 bb)
      SB: $10.29 (41.2 bb)
      Hero (BB): $25.37 (101.5 bb)
      MP: $12.85 (51.4 bb)
      CO: $54.61 (218.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A:club: T:heart:
      2 folds, BTN raises to $0.62, SB folds, Hero calls $0.37

      Flop: ($1.34) 6:heart: 5:diamond: T:spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $0.75, Hero raises to $2.50, BTN calls $1.75

      Turn: ($6.34) 7:spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $4, BTN calls $4

      River: ($14.34) 6:club: (2 players)

      Short time before we had a hand were he cbet 40% pot/call with 55 in 972ss3J and checked behind down (hero showed AQo). So in this hand im pretty sure he remembers the other hand so i try to take advantage of that merging my raising range because he wont fold a pair, and maybe not even overcards. The problem is the river, i dont know if i should shove, bet 2/3, c/c, c/f... ?(
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694

      I don't like the c/r vs a tight guy. Against a looser and more aggressive player who will be paranoid and not give us credit for having a strong hand here, I would just c/r and 3 barrel.

      You can see that he has 38% range in BU which is super nitty IMO. I feel that everyone should have 50% range at the very least.

      Anyway you lose to JJ+ (24 combos) and sets (5-8 combos). I'll assume he never has worse than TX here. You beat T9 JT KT QT (32 combos). Not going to give him more TX hands that a LAG could have (T8 T7 T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s etc).

      It is really close, but I think he always calls JJ+ and folds T9 JT KT QT some % of the time. I find it hard to value bet River but if you want to do so, make it small.