[NL2-NL10] NL5 Zoom AJs Combo Draw on Flop

    • cheekopeh
      Joined: 27.09.2010 Posts: 461
      Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $8.71 (174.2 bb)
      SB: $10.99 (219.8 bb)
      BB: $3.86 (77.2 bb)
      UTG: $4.58 (91.6 bb)
      MP: $2.79 (55.8 bb)
      Hero (CO): $6.30 (126 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A J
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, 2 folds, BB calls $0.10

      Flop: ($0.32) 9 K T (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.25, BB raises to $3.71 and is all-in, Hero calls $3.46

      Turn: ($7.74) 4 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($7.74) 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      $7.74 pot ($0.32 rake)
      Final Board: 9 K T 4 5
      BB showed K Q and lost (-$3.86 net)
      Hero showed A J and won $7.42 ($3.56 net)

      39 hands on Villain 18/15

      Flop: Not sure if I calculated my pot odds rightly. I need to call $3.46 to win $4.28. I need to have 44% equity. Against Villain's range, which is mostly 2p, sets and straights, I have 9 flush outs and 3 Qs which give me the Nuts, As seen in the Odds Chart, w 12 outs I have 1:1 which is 50% equity from Flop-River.

      If I include pairs+GS, pairs+flushdraws I'm in better shape.

      Correct call?
  • 2 replies
    • elchipriota
      Joined: 06.06.2012 Posts: 438
      Without being 100% sure myself I think it also matters on what hands you put your opponent because he can hold a lot of your outs on that spot.

      KQs is actually a good example as he is holding two diamonds which will give you the best hand and also a queen for a straight. that is minus 3 outs for you.

      Also if you put him super tight and you feel there is a big chance he will have a set lots of the times means that some of your outs such as the K of diamonds would give him the better hand.

      Maybe you need to put these scenarions in equilab and see whether this is still profitble play. Also if its not you need to assign a probablity range to each scenario and see whether on the long term this would be profitable.
    • kymupa
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364

      Preflop raising is fine.

      Flop is easy bet/call here in my opinion. He could and up having hands like pair + draw, even some naked draw or some strange hand. Also he will probably have sets and straights, but I'm not really folding here.