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[NL2-NL10] aks

    • Dracsharp
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
      SB ($5.34)
      BB ($7.50)
      UTG ($5.31)
      UTG+1 ($5.96)
      CO ($6.47)
      Hero ($5.32)

      Dealt to Hero K:club: A:club:

      UTG raises to $0.17, fold, CO calls $0.17, Hero raises to $0.70, fold, fold, UTG raises to $1.45, CO calls $1.28, Hero raises to $5.32 (AI), UTG calls $3.86 (AI), CO calls $3.87

      FLOP ($16.02) 8:spade: K:spade: 5:heart:

      TURN ($16.02) 8:spade: K:spade: 5:heart: 9:diamond:

      RIVER ($16.02) 8:spade: K:spade: 5:heart: 9:diamond: 6:diamond:

      UTG shows Q:spade: Q:club:
      (Pre 44%, Flop 14.1%, Turn 4.8%)

      CO shows J:club: J:diamond:
      (Pre 18%, Flop 7.9%, Turn 4.8%)

      Hero shows K:club: A:club:
      (Pre 38%, Flop 78.1%, Turn 90.5%)

      Hero wins $14.96


  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Dracsharp,

      Preflop: That's a pretty big squeeze IP (and with AQ OOP we barely made it 3x). I'd make it no more than 3.5 x here and that's even too big (considering that the opponents are not huge fish - if either was a big fish I'd raise big).

      Once UTG 4-bets small and CO calls I don't think we have much fold equity (against both). UTG can still bluff but CO is most likely calling off here.

      So let's give them some ranges:

      Equity Win Tie
      UTG 41.14% 32.26% 8.88% QQ+, AKs, AKo
      CO 32.78% 29.39% 3.39% TT+, AQs+, AQo+
      Hero 26.08% 15.99% 10.09% AcKc

      If both call, assuming 0 FE, we need 25% equity. So as you can see it's close but villains could have a wider range (especially CO) and UTG can also fold at times.