Variance on microstakes ?

    • caramelo8907
      Joined: 26.12.2010 Posts: 368
      I am just wondering , how you can loose on a single day session ?

      I play 3,50$ STT on stars and today I ran bad . Noting to complain , I am generaly happy with my ROI% , $/hour etc.

      I suffered 10 buy downswing and was really curios to evaluate my play using Wiz and Nash . In fact alot of my situations were flips or coolers or suckouts , I had some mistakes ofc. Like when I enter the money zone I bust 3rd or make something stupid on heads-up . Thats some of my profit loss.

      Oh , forget to mention that I am trying to put up some more volume in my day sessions . Playing like 60 - 80 SnG's a day.

      Could volume be the reason for getting bigger swings... ?

      Just some stats ( for 75 games ) :

      Finish distribution :
      1st - 8%
      2nd - 14,7%
      3rd - 10.7
      4th - 4%

      In the money % - 33.3

      Thanks !
  • 8 replies
    • ghaleon
      Joined: 17.10.2007 Posts: 5,877
      Big or long downswings are less likely in microgames, because of high ROI possibilities. But anyway 50 bin swings are totally possible. Bigger game amount can be reason for smaller ROI thus making bigger swings more likely. 10 bin is very small amount and happens often. But dont be worried of these in short term. E.g. 100 games is very little sample and ROI or ITM values are irrelevant.
    • Wriggers
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Every time you run bad think of this quote:

      "One day, you will run worse than you ever imagined possible"

      It's true, and once you get some more game time under your belt you will look back and laugh at yourself worrying over a 10BI downswing :f_biggrin:

      Variance can get truly, truly brutal even at microstakes. Embrace it.
    • caramelo8907
      Joined: 26.12.2010 Posts: 368
      Thanks for the information guys :) !
    • vuciitis
      Joined: 19.02.2011 Posts: 1,314
      well, i play 1$ 6max hypers and i just had 40BI downswing. tilts me like hell, but i guess thats normal...

      i have another question which is little about the same topic - how accurate is the all in EV line for taking it as an indicator how good am i playing? if i get it right how all in ev line is working then i see the problem here - i could be running for a while with bottom of my value pushing hands into oponents calling range and be behind all the time, lets say 10 times in a row. i dont think that means im playing bad, but just getting unlucky, but in the same time EV line will be going down. Am i right? So how to judge my game - if i am loosing because im playing worse or im just getting unlucky?
    • kurrkabin
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976

      in the long run, the EV line will be accurate. Of course, not perfectly accurate, but it's the best we have. Still good enough though. A few thousand games is not a good sample. Depending on the site, speed and pay out structure, even 10k might not be decently accurate e.g. 5max ongame network where swings are insane.
    • diversfx
      Joined: 24.12.2010 Posts: 627
      I have also found a huge difference depending on what time of day you play sessions.Feel this is do in large part to player base change over.Regs are more aware of push fold ranges,were rec players will generally call wider and limp late stages.
    • vuciitis
      Joined: 19.02.2011 Posts: 1,314
      tnx kurrkabin

      at least now i know that -EV line in my 1k+ sample is not a valid thing to judge my skills... :)
    • eudodo
      Joined: 11.05.2008 Posts: 230
      wish to have this EV money! Maybe one day!