[NL20-NL50] donk turn?

    • daisuke3823
      daisuke3823
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,321
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      ハンドをプレーする

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      BU:
      $53.95
      SB:
      $46.87
      BB (Hero):
      $40.73
      MP2:
      $63.45
      MP3:
      $52.00
      CO:
      $50.96


      Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, K.
      3 folds, BU raises to $1.50, SB folds, Hero calls $1.00.

      Flop: ($3.25) 6, 9, K (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50.

      Turn: ($6.25) Q (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU checks.

      River: ($6.25) 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.25, BU raises to $11.00, Hero calls $8.75.

      Final Pot: $28.25.
      Results follow:

      Hero shows two pairs, kings and queens(Q K).
      BU shows three of a kind, nines(9 J).

      BU wins with three of a kind, nines(9 J).

      his stats in 22 hands vpip68 pfr55 af4,5 wtsd29 w$SD50 river af6
      I could easily guess he had 9 on the river .I block bet and I called to his raise,its worst play,right?
      but his vpip seems to be weak.
      should I donk on the turn?
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Daisuke,

      Preflop: looks fine (although we still don't have 100bb)

      Flop: Considering his small cbet we could consider raising for thin value/protection although calling is fine as well.

      Turn: Considering the turn card I can't expect villain to continue bluffing so donking is definitely an option for value/protection. We don't want him checkingback TT, JJ, weak diamonds. I'd make it $4-$4.5.

      River: As played I like our small bet but what are we really hoping that villain can call with? TT, JJ? Maybe a weak Qx that checks turn.

      Once he raises, and this big he is representing a 9x and that's pretty much it. Flushes, straights, sets don't check the turn behind.

      What hands can he bluff with and/or does it make sense to bluff? Considering that we bet 1/3 pot it could look like a cheap bluff or thin value so an aggro player can bluff us here. So I think we need/can call (pot odds = 31%).

      If we bet $4-$5 on river I think we can bet/fold as I'd expect villain to bluff a lot less.