EV in the long run?

    • 3prswins
      3prswins
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2011 Posts: 204
      Hi Guys,

      Just been having a discussion with someone around a certain spot in a cash game, just wanted some other people's opinions.

      Not sure on exact stats here but here goes.

      we have QQ vs a fish (Vpip ~70)
      Villian raises
      we 3bet
      Villian then 4bets
      Not sure on his other stats but hypothetically we have a ev of ~60% against his 4bet range

      Are we happy to stack off here vs this type of opponent, whom we believe we have a great edge over due to his high Vpip and past plays?

      Obviously the move would be +ev for the one hand in isolation;
      however my argument is that if we believe our edge to be >60% vs Villian, does this make the move -EV?

      Imo, a fold is correct as we can find much better spots to relieve villian of his stack.

      Any thoughts anyone?
  • 6 replies
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      Originally posted by 3prswins
      Not sure on his other stats but hypothetically we have a ev of ~60% against his 4bet range
      just where are you getting that number from? a passive fish will be usually very tight there.

      i was pretty sure that you were talking about tournaments but then i read "a certain spot in a cash game".
      if you have 60% equity against his stacking off range then it's a super clear stack off.

      on cash games you just do whatever makes you EV bucks.
      if you want to avoid variance then you'll most likely be missing quite a number of marginal +EV spots.
      if you have some extra game reads (ie the fish ALWAYS hits and runs) then that's another matter (but you most likely still should stack off because of the dead money and to "protect" against the other regs)

      let's say you are playing nl100k, you have JJ in the bb, a random villain shoves AKo face up and everyone folds.
      since you are ~57/43 you have a clear profitable (+EV) call in a cash game.
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      if your EV of playing the hand is positive (compared to 0 if folding), why would you fold it?
    • 3prswins
      3prswins
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2011 Posts: 204
      The 60%ev vs his 4bet range was a figure I was given from the guy who played the hand (I don't know if he equilabbed it or just made it up, I don't think it makes much difference either way since we're talking hypothetically).

      So we would never take future game ev (not sure if thats a real thing, think I've read it before relating to sng) into account in a cash game? We should always playing every hand in isolation?
    • JuiceQuadre
      JuiceQuadre
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.10.2008 Posts: 2,688
      Originally posted by 3prswins
      The 60%ev vs his 4bet range was a figure I was given from the guy who played the hand (I don't know if he equilabbed it or just made it up, I don't think it makes much difference either way since we're talking hypothetically).

      So we would never take future game ev (not sure if thats a real thing, think I've read it before relating to sng) into account in a cash game? We should always playing every hand in isolation?
      why do you think it lowers your future EV in any way?

      I think what you are saying is that we can find better spot against such a fish when we will have 70%+ and therefore we will reduce variance?

      Thats not false thinking but there are other things to consider.

      The fish might leave the table at any point.
      Other reggs might stack the fish sooner and bust it.

      Poker is a game of tight edges and having 60% is pretty good against the whole range.
      Fish are getting more rare as the games toughens. Dont let your EV get away just because you want lower variance.

      good luck.
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Originally posted by 3prswins
      The 60%ev vs his 4bet range was a figure I was given from the guy who played the hand (I don't know if he equilabbed it or just made it up, I don't think it makes much difference either way since we're talking hypothetically).

      So we would never take future game ev (not sure if thats a real thing, think I've read it before relating to sng) into account in a cash game? We should always playing every hand in isolation?
      60% is a massive edge that you have to take. Yes you can consider future EV but you have to know that fish can simply leave never to be seen again. Or someone else stacks him the next hand.

      Just take his money now and if he wins his more likely to stay anyway and you can just reload and wait for a better spot :)
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,923
      Hey guys,

      Just moving this to our No Limit board :)


      Happy Monday!
      Gary