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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 87s

    • dannywratten
      Joined: 11.05.2010 Posts: 1,462
      Villain unknown

      folding flop seems too weak vs his small sizing & the fact that he doesn't rep much.

      Do you think calling flop/check-jamming turn is an ok line?

      Not sure about his range, but if he shoves turn I think it could look a bit like this:
      Board: 8d4h6c9h
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 44.95% 44.95% 0.00% { 8h7h }
      MP3 55.05% 55.05% 0.00% { 88, 66, AhQh, AhJh, JhTh, Td9d, Tc9c }

      Didn't include all flopped sets since I don't know if they're that likely.
      Also if he raises flop with some sort of GS/BDFD type hand he might continue turn so I put some T9s in there.

      Thoughts on his range OTF/Turn?

      As played I think I would c/call OTR as I can't see any of his flop value raising range checking back turn.

      EDIT: thoughts on 3betting vs his flop raise? Maybe get value from a spew?

      UTG: $53.79 (215.2 bb)
      MP: $18.63 (74.5 bb)
      CO: $31.07 (124.3 bb)
      BTN: $21.66 (86.6 bb)
      SB: $31.09 (124.4 bb)
      Hero (BB): $26.59 (106.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 8 7
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.70, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, CO calls $1.80

      Flop: ($5.10) 8 6 4 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.50, CO raises to $6.55, Hero calls $4.05

      Turn: ($18.20) 9 (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks

      River: ($18.20) 3 (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks

      $18.20 pot ($0.91 rake)
      Final Board: 8 6 4 9 3
      CO showed Q A and lost (-$9.05 net)
      Hero showed 8 7 and won $17.29 ($8.24 net)
  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Danny,

      Preflop: 3-bet and size are both fine.

      Flop: His raise doesn't really make sense on the flop however he is an unknown. So we have no idea if he raises for value 99+, if he can slowplay QQ+, etc.

      So I think that once we call the flop we will win small pots (like this one) and lose big ones.

      Without info, as nitty as it sounds, I would bet fold here because the alternatives are potentially much worse:

      A) If we 3-bet we are turning our hand into a bluff in a spot where we know nothing about opponent.

      B) If we call we will be OOP with about a PSB left. Most turn cards are overcards and if he ships what do we do? The 9h is probably the best card in the deck (along with 5h) for us so that one is easier.

      But what if turn is a T, or A, or 2 (heart or no heart).
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      Can you cbet for value? Will you get called or raised by worse? If so, by what? What's your perceived cbetting range on this flop?

      If you can't cbet with your hand to induce raises and silly overcards floats I think it's better to check/call flop. You have TP, gutter and BD FD. Your TP is not awesome but you have some redraws to handle some aggression. Furthermore, if you think about your cbetting range here, you realize you probably rarely cbet as a bluff. This means that if you cbet all your good made hands AND your medium hands such as this one, your checks become air that always fold to a bet and I believe most opponents at NL25 perceive it that way already.

      If you bet however, I would never bet with the intention of folding. 2x8, 3x7 and 4x5. You have 9 solid outs against his overpairs plus the backdoor flushdraw. You block a hand that is more likely to set mine than the others so when you get raised here, your opponent is 90% full of it. Being OOP I prefer just shipping it in as a semi-bluff against his 3bet because you never realize your equity otherwise after the bet.

      When you are OOP, think about having ranges you can get it in instead of playing later streets OOP. Your idea is OK that he is usually just clicking buttons but he has some FE and he realizes his equity when IP if you just flat, while you might not!