Potodds are 28%.
I gave him the following preflop range (~30%):
JJ-22,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
On the river there are 3 possible set combos (33), I reduced it to 1, and 21 possible 2pair combos (AK/A8/A3), which I reduced to 7.
This way my equity on the river is 47%.
Board: A
3
8
K
5
Equity Win Tie
BU 47.06% 47.06% 0.00% { 8h8s }
SB 52.94% 52.94% 0.00% { 3d3s, AKs, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Qh9h, Jh9h, Th9h, 7h6h, 6h5h, 5h4h, AsKd, AsKc, AcKd, AcKs }
Seems like an easy call.
We have to discount twopairs even more, or add a lot more flush combos to his range to make this a fold. And as
A
/
K
/
8
are all blocked, some of these combos are quite unlikely for him to even call with preflop...
Board: A
3
8
K
5
Equity Win Tie
BU 26.67% 26.67% 0.00% { 8h8s }
SB 73.33% 73.33% 0.00% { 3d3s, AKs, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Qh9h, Jh9h, Th9h, Qh7h, Jh7h, Th7h, 9h7h, Qh6h, Jh6h, Th6h, 9h6h, 7h6h, Qh5h, 7h5h, 6h5h, 7h4h, 6h4h, 5h4h, 4h2h, AsKd, AsKc, AcKd, AcKs }