[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 88 set

    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      Prima, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      MP: $75.83 (151.7 bb)
      CO: $152 (304 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $58.67 (117.3 bb)
      SB: $38.63 (77.3 bb)
      BB: $143.04 (286.1 bb)
      UTG: $14.23 (28.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with 8 8
      3 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls $1.25, BB folds

      Flop: ($3.50) A 3 8 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $2.50, SB calls $2.50

      Turn: ($8.50) K (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $5, SB raises to $13, Hero calls $8

      River: ($34.50) 5 (2 players)
      SB bets $21.63, Hero folds


      Anon table.

      SB played 28/3 after 30 hands, AFq 22.

      He seemed quite passive so far. Maybe 33/A3/A8 sometimes, plus lots of flush combos...
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi pcf

      Im out at the moment. Posting on my phone. Why dont u try pokerstoving this spot since i cant do it? Ill guide u along.

      Check your pot odds first then compare it with your equity. I want u to discount sets by 50% of the combos and 2pair by 66%. I think a passive player often hesitates to raise after the flush card hits.

      Loose fish also tend to defend way more hands in the blinds so im willing to assign him something like a 25-30% preflop range excluding qq kk aa. This should be good practice for u as u try tol self analyze in the future.
    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      Potodds are 28%.

      I gave him the following preflop range (~30%):
      JJ-22,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

      On the river there are 3 possible set combos (33), I reduced it to 1, and 21 possible 2pair combos (AK/A8/A3), which I reduced to 7.

      This way my equity on the river is 47%.

      Board: A:heart: 3:heart: 8:diamond:  K:heart:  5:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      BU     47.06%  47.06%   0.00% { 8h8s }
      SB     52.94%  52.94%   0.00% { 3d3s, AKs, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Qh9h, Jh9h, Th9h, 7h6h, 6h5h, 5h4h, AsKd, AsKc, AcKd, AcKs }



      Seems like an easy call.


      We have to discount twopairs even more, or add a lot more flush combos to his range to make this a fold. And as A/K/8 are all blocked, some of these combos are quite unlikely for him to even call with preflop...

      Board: A:heart: 3:heart: 8:diamond:  K:heart:  5:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      BU     26.67%  26.67%   0.00% { 8h8s }
      SB     73.33%  73.33%   0.00% { 3d3s, AKs, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Qh9h, Jh9h, Th9h, Qh7h, Jh7h, Th7h, 9h7h, Qh6h, Jh6h, Th6h, 9h6h, 7h6h, Qh5h, 7h5h, 6h5h, 7h4h, 6h4h, 5h4h, 4h2h, AsKd, AsKc, AcKd, AcKs }
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      hey pcf, great job!

      This looks fine to me. Initially i was wondering whether a fold could be good here. My gut told me that we have mid set which is good a lot, and occasionally we see some worse nonflush hands. I was also extremely wary about number of flush combos he could have.

      But yea, given that Ah and Kh are blocked, and we can expect him to be tighter in SB than in BB, then I think we have a call here. Not sure if our equity is as high as 47%, but probably more than the required 28% odds on the River.