Is it bad luck or variance?

    • straddler71
      straddler71
      Global
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 516
      I signed up on pokerstrategy a few days ago. I've been playing on partypoker for the last five days. For the first couple of days I played tight, then I opened my game up a bit, and now Im back to playing a super tight game.

      Today I decided to try something new If I was coming into the pot I was going to raise. The only hands I would play would be jj, qq, kk, aa, ak, aq, and aj. Also I would limp with pairs 2-10 and try and flop a set, also ace rag and king rag suited hoping to get to a flush.

      I am playing on the two cent four cent cash game table. You would think that this would be a winning strategy and I would be up maybe $10-$30 dollars by now. But im only up a couple of dollars from where I started this afternoon.

      I know that playing all these good hands will pay off in the long run but I've taken so many bad beats today its ridiculous. Some examples today include opponent gettting a set on the flop I get top pair I go broke, had kings opponent goes runner, runner straight I go broke, raise with ak get called hit k on flop opponent has 2,3 he hits a 3, turn is a 3, its alot of bs.

      Maybe I should go and play in the bad beat jackpot tables and really get paid off for my troubles.

      Has anyone else on party had this sort of bad luck or was it just variance. Seems like I don't come out ahead that much. Or maybe I could just play bad cards like the rest of the players and get lucky.

      Any opinions?, Anyone?
  • 8 replies
    • brian997
      brian997
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.04.2008 Posts: 475
      Just stick to the Starting Hand Chart (SHC) for SSS and you'll find your winrate better than trying to modify the strategy. You can ask anyone else whoes been here a while and they will tell you the number one reason someone goes broke is by not sticking to the SHC.



      To answer your other question:
      Originally posted by straddler71
      Maybe I should go and play in the bad beat jackpot tables and really get paid off for my troubles.
      Not worth it IMO, they take a higher rake, and since you are playing many many hands it will only cut into your profits, and over the long term you would have better equity sticking to regular tables.

      GL
      Brian
    • straddler71
      straddler71
      Global
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 516
      Hey thanks for the quick replys. Yeah Im going to stick to the starting hand charts. Thanks for the advice. It gets on my nerves after awhile when my premium starting hands are getting beat by marginal hands that eventually close by the river.
    • brian997
      brian997
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.04.2008 Posts: 475
      Yeah I know, trust me haha :P
      I know it also sucks sometime when you have to fold okayish hands like 66 or AT, then see a flop that would have given you a monster :P
      But just know that in the long run your EQ will be positive :)
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      With $50 on Party and playing SSS, you should play on NL10 from scratch. NL5 is simply not profitable enough. That's another reason why you do not make any profit.

      ;)
    • straddler71
      straddler71
      Global
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 516
      Yeah I know that your not going to make a whole lot playing on the 2 cent, 4 cent tables. I thought I'd start out there to accumulate my party points and make a few bucks at the same time. Im halfway to my first 25 dollar bonus. A few more days I should be there.

      So im playing on party today and Im only playing premium hands. High pairs and big aces. You would think I would have some kind of profit to show for it, maybe a few bucks. But I actually lost money today. Seems like im still taking bad beats every other hand.

      Before I signed up on pokerstrategy I have an account with 888poker.com. Im making money on that site. Generally Im using the same strategy, playing good hands. Don't take many bad beats on there. Every now and then. But its nothing compared to party.

      But I did qualify in a free roll to play in a 2500.00 tournament tommorrow night. I finished 29th of about 1100 people. Hope I do well tommorrow.
    • nvelev
      nvelev
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.01.2008 Posts: 2,015
      If you lose with top pair or overpair don't consder it as bad beat.
      Reading your post I can assume you don't play SSS... What is your buy in for nl4?
    • straddler71
      straddler71
      Global
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 516
      Hey nvelev. Hows it going? Not too good on the short forms. But sss are sit n go's right. I haven't played one sit and go on party. I like playing in cash games where the blinds never go up and tournaments where the blinds go up slowly. It fits my game better. Sit n go blinds go up quickly, thats why I haven't played any yet. The site also takes a rake. At the $1 buy in level you only get about $4 and change for winning. Basically you have to win every time to make money. I think your time spent is more profitable in a cash game or maybe you can get lucky in a tournament.

      To answer your question at the 2 cent, 4 cent cash game I usually buy in for about $2.00, the minimum. So far I don't think that it would have mattered what I bought in for, I would have lost even more.

      Just a little while ago I was playing in a cash game. There were two limpers, I woke up with pocket aces, I raised to 14 cents, had 3 callers, bet after the flop, 2 players folded and the other called. By the river he put me all in and I thought I was beat for sure. He turned over q 8, a busted draw. Calls me with q 8 after I raised preflop. What a stupid call. But the sad thing is he almost got there and busted me.

      Does anyone play at the 5 cent, 10 cent level? Are there less maniacs there?
    • brian997
      brian997
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.04.2008 Posts: 475
      Hey Straddler,
      You really really really need to reread the strategy articles.
      In particular read these two articles:
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/no-limit/822/
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/no-limit/824/

      If you did that already, then you would know that SSS means short stack strategy, which is the best strategy to play, because it requires very basic decision making. SSS is not for Sit-N-Gos, in fact it is quite the opposite :)


      You'll also pick this up in the article, but NL4 means No-Limit $0.02/$0.04. Similarly NL10 means No-Limit $0.05/$0.10.

      Another key strategy to SSS is to buy in with only 20 BB's (big blinds). So at NL4 you would buy-in with $0.80. Obviously you can't do that, which is why you must play NL10!!! Otherwise the standard deviations that make this strategy effective are no longer present, and even only playing premium hands your EV (expected value) will be negative (meaning you'll lose money in the long run!).

      Before you sit down at another table, please read those two articles, and also this one on bankroll management:
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/no-limit/825/

      You'll thank yourself later if you take the time to read them carefully now!
      You can also print off the SHC (Starting Hand Chart) and the Push-Fold against Raisers chart found in the first article I linked you too. You'll find them handy to help play good strategy.