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[NL2-NL10] [FR] NL2 ATs 02-12-12

    • Resilence
      Joined: 10.03.2012 Posts: 934
      IPoker, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP3: $2 (100 bb)
      CO: $1.91 (95.5 bb)
      BTN: $4.56 (228 bb)
      SB: $3.41 (170.5 bb)
      Hero (BB): $2.13 (106.5 bb)
      MP1: $2.64 (132 bb)
      MP2: $1.09 (54.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A T
      4 folds, BTN raises to $0.06, SB folds, Hero raises to $0.20, BTN raises to $0.50, Hero raises to $1.40, BTN folds

      Hi, all
      Want to know about how my play was here, I'm sure it was quite flawed, however I do belive that this was a good spot to show strength.

      This villain, kinda lives off by getting ppl to fold, he often raise and bets, he has bluffed a few times on the river towards me, and others, I do think he is adapting a bit to my play, however he is still opening alot of his range, and I think I'm ahead of his range here.

      I did want to create FE as ATs isn't the strongest hand, I somehow belived making a 5bet without shoving would provide more in this situation, however this might be a flaw.
      If he did push I was gonna call tho. Does this make sens at all? :P

      Maybe I did this to make him see, I'm not easily pushed around, (revenge tilt?).
      Gues I want him to show some respect, so maybe it was a tilt issue, can't be sure, but looking forward to what you guys say :)
      (He likes to be a bully :P )

      Anyways still belive his range here is big enough for a push with ATs.

  • 6 replies
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Resilence,

      Considering the size we chose for a 5bet I can't see how it can gain us more FE than a normal shove. Both are equally strong (in my eyes).

      We shouldn't make these type of plays because we want "to teach" him a lesson but rather because it's plus EV. In other words I feel that you allowed emotions to dictate your play which is a sign of tilt.

      As a homework for you do the following:

      Calculate the FE required for your push to be profitable assuming various calling ranges for him:

      A) QQ+, AK
      B) JJ+, AQ
      C) others that you can think off.
    • Resilence
      Joined: 10.03.2012 Posts: 934
      Ok, now I think I got the math around this finally, took me some time to decipher it, apparently my brain doesn't work exactly as the way things where explained :P

      But basicly I have to set it up like this in order for me to understand it properly:

      (My win if villain calls)+(My win if villain folds)+(My loss if villain calls and wins)
      (EQ+total pot)+(times he folds+pot taken down unimproved)+((EQ+fold%)+loss)

      Guess I should have this worked out already, but never really got it, however think it makes a lil sense, however, nothing I can do while playing, but something I can do when I have time and analyze my hands.
      Anyways thx for forcing me to do it :P

      I know my formula might look stupid or not correct, however it makes sense to me this way ;)

      (5% if he folds hands like this vs me this often)
      A) 29%*$4,77 + 5%*$2,69 + 66%*(-$2,11) = $0,1252 Not sure he would fold these hands however from tat position being so aggressive as he is.

      My equity doesn't change much, however he might fold more oftent with JJ ans AQ, but it will still be low.
      B) 29%*$4,77 + 8%*$2,69 + 63%*(-$2,11) = $0,2692

      C) KK+ He will never fold here 26%*$4,77 + 0%*$2,69 + 74%*(-$2,11) = -$0,3212

      Not sure if it makes sense to put him on a strong range as KK+ tho.
      And am I also calculating my blind loss to the (-$2,11) or would it be (-$2,13)?

      Sorry if it's all wrong, however I'm sure someone will correct me, I havn't had any real math for many years, so dusting off my brain slowly :P

      It seems to me, that it will be profitable in many cases, even tho I can't be sure his real fold equity is, Only if he never folds it will be unprofitable. however little I will win over a million hands with him it's still +EV but really really close.
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      I'll take a look at this shortly and get back to you :)

      Nice work though.
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      What we need to know:

      Effective stack: 106.5 BB
      Money in pot after the shove/5-bet: $0.71 (35.5 BB).
      We risk 96.5 BB (we can consider as if we shoved).

      So if he folds we win 35.5 BB.
      If he goes all in we:

      *keep in mind we don't account for rake here

      A) We have 29.31% equity versus QQ+, AK.

      That means that when we get called win win 29.31% of the time, and lose 70.69% of the time.

      Net worth (assuming 0 FE): (0.2931 * 117 BB) - (0.7069 *96.5) = 34.2937 - 68.21585 = -33.92215

      So that means we lose on average 33.92215 BB when we have 0 FE.

      Now to calculate FE we simply divide NW by NW+Pot_to_win_if_he_folds:

      33.92215 / (33.92215 + 35.5) = 33.92215 / 69.42215 = 0.4886 or 48.86% fold equity required.

      Now see if you can spot your mistake :)
    • Resilence
      Joined: 10.03.2012 Posts: 934
      I see several mistakes here, however there are a few ones I don't get.

      But as I can see I'm adding more money in to the pot than I have, adding bet sizes to my total, instead of the actual size that I put in, done that mistake before.

      And I assume I win the entire pot when I win instead of just his stack+ the blind.

      But what I can't understand up to this time is, where do you get 117bb when I win? shouldn't this be 107bb?

      (106,5 my effective stack + 0,5 blind) = 107

      (0.2931 * 107 BB) - (0.7069 * 96.5) = -36,85415?

      And I must admit I get a bit confused when we add our loss to the win if he folds :P
      I assume its something with the line if it's a possitive number it means we absorb some of his FE which means we in essence need less FE which makes sense :P

      Lets give him a really crappy hand like 72o I would then need less FE

      (0,6972 * 107 BB) - (0,3028 * 96,5) = 45,38 NW as you call it with 0 FE

      45,3802/ (-45,3802 - 35,5) = -0,5610 = -56% FE meaning it would always be profitable (over the long run)?

      I assume I din't need 56% FE against 72o or a random range...

      Or am I completely lost now? :P

      So embarrassing not being better at this ;)

      Gawd hope I don't get more confused from this hehe...
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi resilence,

      given normal bet sizes (like what I see here), I think that when you 5bet jam with your hand you probably need approximately 50% fold equity. Perhaps even lesser, given that your hand is suited. These numbers could change based on his stacking off range but this should be about right. Then again you have 6bb more than the usual 100bb stack size. so you would need slightly more FE.

      This is why people try to strive for a 50:50 bluff:value ratio with their 4betting range to remain unexploitable vs light 5bets