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[NL2-NL10] Aa 3/12

    • carrapa
      Joined: 09.12.2010 Posts: 1,295
      Prima, $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $4.17 (104.3 bb)
      BTN: $6.45 (161.3 bb)
      SB: $3.43 (85.8 bb)
      BB: $4 (100 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $4.77 (119.2 bb)
      MP: $4.42 (110.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with A A
      Hero raises to $0.16, MP folds, CO calls $0.16, 3 folds

      Flop: ($0.38) K 4 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.44, CO raises to $1.06, Hero raises to $4.61 and is all-in, CO calls $2.95 and is all-in

      Turn: ($8.40) 8 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
      River: ($8.40) 9 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

      :s_confused: :s_confused:
  • 2 replies
    • w34z3l
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,332
      Flop is probably a fold. Especially since you overbet and he still raises. He will definitely have worse from time to time - but not enough to show a long run profit by stacking off imo. You block nut-flush draw and AK also which are good hands for him to be raising here (since you beat them).
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      don't like the overbet on flop. and it's hard to say whether you should stack off here or not without info.

      w34z3l already pointed out the main points of why folding might be the best play. anyway I think in general given starting positions, assuming villain is somewhat positionally aware and knows how to tighten his range against a UTG player, we can expect him to have very few KX hands which could raise for value (only KQ and KJs which may/may not raise the Flop).

      So I expect to see 44/88/5s6s/6s7s/KsXs a lot here. It all boils down to how often he raises AK in this fashion and stack off IMO. While you block half the combos of AK with your 2 As, I think that the remaining 6 combos of AK can make a huge difference in your flop equity.

      With all combos of AK

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 53.46% 53.46% 0.00% AsAc
      MP3 46.54% 46.54% 0.00% 88, 44, AKs, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, 7s6s, 6s5s, AKo

      Without AK

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 32.42% 32.42% 0.00% AsAc
      MP3 67.58% 67.58% 0.00% 88, 44, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, 7s6s, 6s5s