[NL2-NL10] SH NL4 - JJ on wet board

    • painterman007
      painterman007
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.05.2009 Posts: 82
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.04(BB) Replayer
      SB ($2.60)
      BB ($5.42)
      Hero ($3.62)
      CO ($4)
      BTN ($2.95)

      CO posts $0.04

      Dealt to Hero J:heart: J:spade:

      Hero raises to $0.12, CO calls $0.08,
      BTN calls $0.12, fold, BB calls $0.08

      FLOP ($0.50) Q:spade: 6:spade: 9:spade:

      BB checks, Hero bets $0.48, CO raises to $1, BTN calls $1, BB folds, Hero raises to $3.50 (AI)
      (result is not important)

      ____________________________________________________

      Preflop:
      Pretty standard 3bb raise trying to get a 2 way pot

      Flop:
      C-bet big on the very wet board to keep others from drawing, thinking the only hands beating me in their ranges would be QX type hands. I realize now there is a risk of sets, and twopair hands making it in because of the 4way pot and cheap call relative to pot size.
      The raiser and caller on the flop are both pretty loose and aggressive with around 50/30 vpip/pfr. I put raiser villain on Qx primarily, and JT,JK type hands.. (Calculated with equilab giving me ~50% equity, does this mean i can expect to win 50 % of the money in the pot on average?).
      Can you please explain how equity works in this specific situation?( the C-bet leading to the all-in, and how this would look in terms of percentage of pot i can expect to win)(when I tried myself I came to the conclusion that I could expect to win around $3,50 with my $3 bet, is this somewhat correct?)

      The range I assigned both villains:
      JJ+,99,AQs+,A9s,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,KJo,QJo,JTo


      I decided to go all in because the pot was so big already and I felt I had an ok made hand and a strong drawing hand, figuring it would be +EV. Was I mistaken?


      Thank you!
      (sorry if it's messy, im still new to posting hands like this)
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Painterman,

      Preflop: Considering CO posted we can make this preflop even larger at 4-5x (we are UTG). It shouldn't be a standard 3x raise because the scenario is not standard (CO posted, thus more money in the pot).

      Flop: Since CO posted he is most likely a fish. The BTN is also short so most likely a fish.

      The range you assigned them is way too wide. Why would they have KTs in their calling/raising ranges?

      The equity you got from equilab refers to how often you will win the pot if the money goes all in. So on the flop if you have 50% equity that means that on average 50 out of 100 times you will win the hand.

      Since you put less than 50% of the money in you stand to make a profit.

      The shove is not good in my opinion unless we can collect the dead money however, since BTN only has about $1.5 I can't see him folding anything.

      Equity versus a wider range:

      Equity Win Tie
      37.72% 37.66% 0.06% JhJs
      62.28% 62.23% 0.06% 99, 66, AQs, KQs, Q9s+, AsKs, AsTs, KsTs, As8s, Ks8s, Qs8s, Js8s, Ts8s, As7s, Ks7s, Qs7s, Js7s, 8s7s, As6s, Ks6s, Qs6s, Js6s, 8s6s, 7s6s, As5s, Ks5s, Qs5s, Js5s, 8s5s, 7s5s, 6s5s, As4s, Ks4s, Qs4s, Js4s, 7s4s, 6s4s, 5s4s, As3s, Ks3s, Qs3s, Js3s, 6s3s, 5s3s, 4s3s, As2s, Ks2s, Qs2s, Js2s, AQo, KQo, Q9o+, AsKd, AsKh, AsKc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, AsTd, AsTh, AsTc, As9d, As9h, As9c, As8d, As8h, As8c, As7d, As7h, As7c, As6d, As6h, As6c, As5d, As5h, As5c, As4d, As4h, As4c, As3d, As3h, As3c, As2d, As2h, As2c

      If both have the same range we have 14% equity.

      So this flop, at least for me with no info, it's a simple bet/fold scenario.