[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH AQs 4b after squeeze

    • lood88
      lood88
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.09.2010 Posts: 88
      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
      PartyPoker
      5 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($10.51) 105bb
      CO ($10.40) 104bb
      BTN ($10) 100bb 30/22/11,4 squeeze/350 hands
      Hero (SB) ($12.76) 128bb
      BB ($27.42) 274bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is SB A:heart: Q:heart:
      UTG raises to $0.40, CO calls $0.40, BTN raises to $1.60, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, UTG folds, CO folds, BTN goes all-in $8.40, Hero calls $6.50

      Flop: 6:diamond: 7:heart: 3:club: ($20.90, 2 players, 1 all-in)

      Turn: 6:heart: ($20.90, 2 players, 1 all-in)

      River: 5:heart: ($20.90, 2 players, 1 all-in)



      What do you think? Bet sizing?
  • 5 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      I think the cold 4bet is fine vs this particular guy who 3bets a lot. Do you have his normal 3bet %? Your sample size for squeeze is probably really small.

      Did you have a plan here after 4betting? To call this shove here, you'll need to have pot odds of 6.50/20.90 = 31.1%.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 32.06% 30.98% 1.09% AQs
      MP3 67.94% 66.85% 1.09% JJ+, AKs, AKo

      I guess with AQs you are committed most of the time. With AQo you could potentially cold 4bet here as a bluff and then fold. I don't think you have the option of calling given that it will probably become a 3way pot.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 28.15% 27.02% 1.14% AQo
      MP3 71.85% 70.71% 1.14% JJ+, AKs, AKo

      It's still a fold vs TT+/AK but you can call vs TT+/AQ+

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 30.63% 29.66% 0.98% AQo
      MP3 69.37% 68.39% 0.98% TT+, AKs, AKo

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 34.40% 24.06% 10.33% AQo
      MP3 65.60% 55.27% 10.33% TT+, AQs+, AQo+

      So I think your call after cold 4betting is probably fine, provided he shoves JJ+/AK which I think he would.
    • lood88
      lood88
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.09.2010 Posts: 88
      Hi mbml

      TOT 3b 4,2
      BTN 3b 8,2

      Sample size is indeed small, unfortunately I saw it too late.
      What do you think about bet sizing?

      Plan was to call his shove since I already have over 30% stack in.
      If he just called, I'd probably shove most flops. Don't think he would slowplay premiums here and he could fold best hand on my shove.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      I think this guy should be squeezing a lot from these positions and you are probably committed. That size seems reasonable to me, 2.3X his 3bet size. But then again UTG opened so large and then this is a squeeze pot. So instead of the normal 3BB open + 9-10BB 3bet size, we have a 4BB + 16BB 3bet size. I would actually 4bet to 2X only, so 32BB.

      We are still committed with AQs so we can call it off. And we save money when we 4bet/fold with AQo.

      I guess shoving all flops could be fine, given that there is only a pot size bet left and we think we have some fold equity if he somehow has AK or AK. If you think his range here is really wide and he could bluff when checked to, then I rather just c/c with AQ high on a 225r board for example, and allow him to shove his AJ KQ ATs KJs type of hands. I don't think he has too many of those hands though.
    • lood88
      lood88
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.09.2010 Posts: 88
      Thanks a lot.

      One more question. What is the reasoning for this 4bb open raising? I see it now and then, even from CU and BU, and don't get it.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      4BB open could be good in certain circumstances such as live games (where you need to open 5 or 6BB sometimes just to get the pot headsup). It makes more sense in looser games where you don't get enough fold equity. And it's great if your opening range is just tighter. So I really wouldn't recommend opening 4BB unless you have something like a 12% UTG opening range.

      And in CO and BU it's generally not a good play to open so large. When you are stealing wide ranges, you generally want to give yourself a great price on the steal.

      For example when you raise 2BB in BU to steal the blinds, you are risking 2BB to win 1.5BB so your bluff needs to work 2/(2+1.5) = 57% of the time.

      When you raise 4BB in BU to steal, 4/5.5 = 72.7% of the time. There's a really huge difference. Also, when you put more dead money with a wide range, you are going to lose a lot when aggressive players punish you with wide 3bet ranges.