[NL2-NL10] Ai on flop 200bb deep

    • Imimba1
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 2026366
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      SB: $5.37 - VPIP: 7, PFR: 3, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 29
      Hero (BB): $12.42 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 2.0, Hands: 61105
      CO: $5.23 - VPIP: 2, PFR: 2, 3B: 0, AF: 3.0, Hands: 41
      BTN: $9.77 - VPIP: 42, PFR: 14, 3B: 0, AF: 1.5, Hands: 76 cbet:33, WTS:57

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BB with T :heart: J :heart:
      1 fold, BTN raises to $0.15, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.10

      Flop: ($0.32) 4 :heart: 9 :heart: A :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.20, BTN raises to $0.50, Hero raises to $1.76, BTN raises to $5.60, Hero raises to $12.27, BTN calls $4.02 all in
      He cbets rarely, so I'd just better start the betting.

      Turn: ($19.56) 3 :club: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      River: ($19.56) 4 :diamond: (2 players - 1 is all in)
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694

      How high is his cbet? I still think you should c/r on this flop texture.

      I think with the Jack high flush draw, i'm not thrilled with getting it in. But if you don't want to stack off, don't lead the Flop, then 3bet his raise.

      I'm just wondering what flush draws he could have though. He raised from the BU, meaning that he could have stuff like Kh2h and Qh2h, but it also means he can have 5h3h 6h5h 6h7h 7h8h. Then again he has a low pfr so I'm not sure if he would limp those hands instead.

      I think I would still jam it in anyway and hope he has sets or overplays 2 pairs.
    • Imimba1
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      This may be a : "either way is good" situation then?

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 45.77% 45.77% 0.00% JhTh
      MP3 54.23% 54.23% 0.00% AA, 99, 44, KhQh, Kh8h, Qh8h, Kh7h, Qh7h, 8h7h, Kh6h, Qh6h, 9h6h, 8h6h, 7h6h, Kh5h, Qh5h, 9h5h, 8h5h, 7h5h, 6h5h, Kh4h, Qh4h, 6h4h, Kh3h, Qh3h
      I have 46% equity WITHOUT any 2p in his range. With some of it I'm favorite.

      Well, there is no turning back i think. Vs flushes I dont fold. (flopped flush ffs), and if another heart comes, sets might just stop, so no other choice then to go broke?

      he cbets 33% of the time though, and his BUT steal: 43%. That means he also has a bunch or more worse FDs. (I think fishes love suited hands)