[NL20-NL50] correct call?

    • daisuke3823
      daisuke3823
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,321
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      ハンドをプレーする

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      BU (Hero):
      $24.90
      SB:
      $11.90
      BB:
      $11.51
      MP2:
      $28.39
      MP3:
      $27.13
      CO:
      $48.45


      Preflop: Hero is BU with Q, A.
      MP2 raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, SB raises to $11.90, 2 folds, Hero calls $11.15.

      Flop: ($24.8) T, 5, 6 (2 players)


      Turn: ($24.8) 6 (2 players)


      River: ($24.8) 4 (2 players)


      Final Pot: $24.8.
      Results follow:

      SB shows a pair of sixes(K A).
      Hero shows a flush, ace high(Q A).

      Hero wins with a flush, ace high(Q A).

      his stats in 73 hands vpip31 pfr29 af8 wtsd13 w$sd0 3ET16,7 squeeze66、7   
      my all in call was correct?
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      This is a simple pot odds and equity spot.
      1) calculate ur pot odds
      2) put him on a range and poker stove or equilab your equity

      The tough part is the assumptions. Try to give an optimistic and conservative estimate for your opponents range. I will guide u along.
    • daisuke3823
      daisuke3823
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,321
       BEP45、4%   his range QQ+、AKo、AKs→my equity 24、4%    optimistic AQo、AQs、AJo、AQs、KQs、KQo、99+→ equity 58、54%                               



      like this?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      1) count your pot odds first.

      Pot odds = (Amount Left to call / Total pot after calling) X 100%

      11.15/24.8 = 45%

      2) For your equity estimates, that seems fine. I think your conservative estimates is a little too conservative (he definitely goes all-in with JJ for sure).

      Your optimistic estimate may be a little too optimistic (do people really shove KQ and AJ here? Vs an MP opening range?) Then again if he's really aggro like his stats suggested (over a larger sample), it could be fine.

      The biggest problem here is your sample size. But I'm willing to assume he's more aggressive and put my trust in the stats. The 3bet stats which you have a lower sample size on matches the high PFR and VPIP, so he is very likely to be aggro.

      I think this is a close spot and if he shoves KQ and AJ a small % of the time we would need to call here. If he never shoves these hands, we should always fold here cos we don't have more than 40% equity.