[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 KQs

    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      Prima, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

      BTN: $50 (100 bb)
      SB: $51.50 (103 bb)
      BB: $50 (100 bb)
      Hero (MP): $53.53 (107.1 bb)
      CO: $84.97 (169.9 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with K Q
      Hero raises to $1.50, CO folds, BTN calls $1.50, SB folds, BB calls $1

      Flop: ($4.75) J Q K (3 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, BB raises to $10, 2 folds


      Anon table.

      BB played 15/10 after 20 hands, AFq 25 so far.
      BTN 14/10 after 10 hands.

      This is a fold, isnt it? T9s/AT, even JJ are definitely in his range. Plus we should discount weaker twopair combos, firstly maybe some offsuit combos because of preflop call, secondly because of the strength of his flop move.

      If we take BTN out of the calculation, and I jam after BB's chRaise, I need 43% against his calling range, and I dont think he would fold anything after this move.
      I have that 43% only if I take all other twopairs into account, but as I wrote maybe it's too optimistic, and I should discount some of them, so this way I dont have it anymore...

      Board: K:diamond: Q:spade: J:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    43.19%  37.14%   6.04% { KcQc }
      BB     56.81%  50.77%   6.04% { JJ, ATs, KJs+, QJs, T9s, ATo, KJo+, QJo }
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Imo he can have some qt jt hands as well some % of the time. I think ur hand is too strong to fold esp if he overplays weaker twopairs. Its too weak to jam imo. So call and plan to call down on blank runouts. Ucan fold on an ace ten or jack.

      I suggest u continue equity calculations on future streets on various cards like a blank or a jack or ten and see ur equity vs his range.
    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      I discounted weaker twopairs by 33%, and added 3 combos of QT/JT as semibluff.
      Turn scenarios:


      It seems that I could have the equity for a calldown on blanks.
      A/J/9 are bad cards for me, J being far the worst, but it's interesting that equitywise T is not bad. It gives second-best hands for QT/JT, and the only Ax in his range is AT, and it doesnt help that cause it already beats me. On the other hand it's an action killer for worse hands...
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Yea that looks abt right. He never bets without an ace on a ten imo. Its just a suicidal spot to bluff.

      So just fold A J T 9. Shoving turn on a blank is def an option too.