[NL20-NL50] [sh] nl 50 3 barrel small sizes 4 value

    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      On Game, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $90.61 (181.2 bb)
      BTN: $33.84 (67.7 bb)
      SB: $53.02 (106 bb)
      BB: $118.06 (236.1 bb)
      UTG: $19.46 (38.9 bb)
      Hero (MP): $50 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with J J
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.75, CO folds, BTN calls $1.75, SB folds, BB calls $1.25

      Flop: ($5.50) 9 5 4 (3 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $4.50, BTN calls $4.50, BB raises to $15, 2 folds

      Results:
      $19 pot ($0.95 rake)
      Final Board: 9 5 4
      BTN mucked and lost (-$6.25 net)
      BB mucked and won $18.05 ($11.80 net)
      Hero mucked J J and lost (-$6.25 net)



      What do you think about the sizings? I think they are good if we calls TT and QQ as well and would have been better as well if T,R were lower. In this specific case I feel that I'm likely losing value.

      I was folding the hand at any point if raised.
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Wrong hand pls upload the right one.
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      On Game, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $73 (146 bb)
      MP: $55.53 (111.1 bb)
      CO: $74.39 (148.8 bb)
      BTN: $49.25 (98.5 bb)
      Hero (SB): $60.48 (121 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A K
      MP raises to $1.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $5.50, BB folds, MP calls $4

      Flop: ($11.50) A J J (2 players)
      Hero bets $5, MP calls $5

      Turn: ($21.50) 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $8, MP calls $8

      River: ($37.50) 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $11, MP calls $11

      Results:
      $59.50 pot ($2.97 rake)
      Final Board: A J J 8 7
      MP mucked and lost (-$29.50 net)
      Hero showed A K and won $56.53 ($27.03 net)


      Stats are good, sorry for the mistake
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      I think we have 2 options here. We either bet T and R, but with smaller sizing like you did here, or we bet 2 streets only (assuming we are afraid of JX). I think it's really hard to get called by too many worse hands with larger bet sizes but I could be wrong.

      At the same time, I think this guy shouldn't have that many JX hands. I believe he shouldn't really call off suit JX hands.

      AQ (8 combos)
      AJs (0 combos)
      KJs (2 combos)
      QJs/JTs (2 out of 4 combos) - Discount by 50%
      JJ (0.5 combos?) - Discount by 50%, assuming he 4bets half the time
      ATs (2 combos)

      Now we see here that we are ahead of 10 combos and behind 4.5 combos. So I think we should probably think about going for more value. I'm thinking that 3 streets look like a much better option now when we are ahead 65% of the time.

      Question is whether he could call 3 streets with slightly larger sizing. We are deep and it may be awkward on the River. If we bet 25 and he shoves, we have really little money left.

      I really wouldn't mind just betting slightly larger on either the Turn or River. We can probably earn another 10-20bb more and expect him to have a fairly similar calling range (maybe he folds ATs to a larger bet but probably not AQ). We would still have room to bet/fold the River though.