[NL2-NL10] QJo – Over-playing Nut Straight when Flush is Possible

    • Raknyo
      Raknyo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 422
      PF: Getting good odds to call, especially when I could have the best hand.
      PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (BTN): 116.6 BB
      SB: 177.2 BB
      BB: 100 BB
      UTG: 108.8 BB
      MP: 235.4 BB
      CO: 223.2 BB

      SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has J:heart: Q:spade:

      UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, CO calls 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, fold, fold

      Flop: (7.4BB, 3 players) 8:spade: A:spade: K:heart:
      UTG bets 4 BB, CO calls 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

      Turn: (19.4BB, 3 players) T:spade:
      UTG bets 7 BB, CO calls 7 BB, Hero raises to 40 BB, fold, CO raises to 217.2 BB and is all-in, Hero?

      F: I've got a gutshot though some of my outs might be useless so I can only count 3/3.5 outs but if the turn is a spade then I can re-draw to the second nuts. I have position so I assume that I'll be able to extract a lot of value if I make my nut straight, so I think I have good enough implied odds to call.

      T: I make the nut straight but a flush is now possible, though I have a re-draw to the second nuts. I have a strong hand but it is second best to any flush. My hand is only vulnerable to KsX which is capable of being in both players ranges, so a bet would protect my hand against this. I could bet to maximise value from top pair and two-pair hands and also to gain value from JsX or 9sX holdings which are drawing dead to me.

      Since no-one has showed any strength then I choose to bet, however, I am faced with a jam. I don't think CO would do this without a flush since he most likely would have bet a more vulnerable hand before now. I have roughly 70BB to call and there is roughly 176BB in the pot so I have pot odds of 2.5 to 1, meaning I don't have the required pot odds to draw to my second nut flush. Therefore, Hero must find a fold here.
  • 2 replies
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Looks ok, might be better to raise smaller on turn.

      This way you might still be able to extract value on safe rivers from 2pair etc. Vs your large raise it's possible the only turn-calling hands are NFD, flushes, and straights, so you can basically never value-bet the river.

      With a smaller raise you can extract value from a slightly wider range and also you can find an easier fold if you get jammed on.

      Nothing too terrible with the hand though, that's just how I'd play it.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Raknyo,

      Preflop: Considering villain only minraises and it's called I'd prefer a 3-bet bluff preflop. Our hand is not the greatest to call here anyway.

      Flop: I don't like the call in the flop with backdoor 2nd nut flush and straight. Why not raise the flop instead or just fold?

      Turn: Since we hold the Qs the only flushes that villain can have with a Kx is really KJ and maybe K9. But he can also have 67 and maybe J9.

      Him call/shoving looks really strong but would he not raise that small bet initially there with a strong hand, especially a flush that needs protection? So really I can see him having Kx flush here or a redraw like KQ/KJ with Ks.

      It's a tough spot and probably marginal at best because people don't really bluff here much so folding wouldn't be a mistake. However I feel that our mistake started preflop and then on the flop that put us in this spot.