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[NL20-NL50] JJ river ste vs raise ? nl 25 sh

    • dzikson999
      Joined: 17.08.2010 Posts: 532
      PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      CO: $28.59
      BTN: $8.98
      SB: $27.35
      BB: $30.26
      UTG: $56.50
      Hero (MP): $26.68

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has J:spade: J:club:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, fold, fold, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($2.35, 3 players) A:spade: 7:diamond: 3:spade:
      BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

      Turn: ($2.35, 3 players) 2:diamond:
      BB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50

      River: ($6.85, 3 players) J:diamond:
      BB bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, CO raises to $9.50, fold, Hero calls $6.00
      Villain is unknown but looks fishy is he ever over playing some two pair hands or lover stets this way or is it always flush? Can my call be ev+ in long run in this spots how do you see my equity in this spot ?!
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      you need to be good here like 23-24% of the time. He's the guy in position. I think he rarely slowplays monsters. Therefore I think he has a flush really often here. U might be able to find a fold.

      You already block 2 Jacks, and the only other hand which is improved by the River is AJ (3 combos only). Would he really raise that? I think we have to heavily discount that, fishes tend to underplay their monsters on flush cards cos they are paranoid of facing flushes.

      assuming he has VPIP of 25 and has a decently wide range in the BU, I think he can have at least 15 flush combos or more. We would need him to have about 3-4 combos of air (probably close to none) and worse made hands (at most 2 combos of AJ?)

      So this looks like a fold to me.