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[NL20-NL50] Nl25 SH - 99: pre-flop

    • Lunitis
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,136
      UTG: 59/6

      MP: 24/21/3.5

      CO: 54/39
      20% 3bet
      2/3 fold vs 4bet
      242 hands

      BB: $13.25 (53 bb)
      UTG: $23.75 (95 bb)
      MP: $13.95 (55.8 bb)
      CO: $19.96 (79.8 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $40.62 (162.5 bb)
      SB: $25 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9:diamond: 9:heart:
      UTG calls $0.25, MP raises to $1.25, CO raises to $3.25, hero!?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      CO is short. If he was really that aggro over a larger sample (20% 3bet), I would just shove over. We will just pick up the pot so often and pick up 13BB. Only risking 80BB and if we get called we probably have 35%+ equity so we risk 80 and get back 160 BB X 0.35 = 56, losing 24 on average. But if his 3b range was that wide we just pick up the pot >70%+ of the time.

      Your alternative is to call or fold. I don't like calling so much when they are short. UTG can very easily limp/reraise too which sucks for us. So I would fold if i did not shove.

      I expect MP to fold 80%+ of the time. And I expect CO to fold at least 65-70% of the time. So I think this shove could be profitable.