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[NL20-NL50] [ZOOM 25] EV of Splitsville

    • StaticMoth
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642


      Need to be splitting at least 53% of the time for the call to be okay.
      Vs a reasonable Qx range we split like 35% of the time and even if we
      give villain every single Qx in the deck, it's still just 45% at best.

      Or would you still say "fuck it" and call coz "you never know how these
      fish can spazz and overplay stuff"

      Tho it's the overbetshove - they could overplay sets/AA/2p whatever ...
      but they prolly wouldn't overbet shove them making this a fold
      due to the EV calcs I brought out?

      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      Hero (BTN): $25 (100 bb)
      SB: $25 (100 bb)
      BB: $23.96 (95.8 bb)
      UTG: $8.60 (34.4 bb)
      MP: $17.03 (68.1 bb)
      CO: $13.72 (54.9 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with K Q
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.62, Hero calls $0.62, 2 folds

      Flop: ($1.59) T J K (2 players)
      CO bets $0.95, Hero calls $0.95

      Turn: ($3.49) 9 (2 players)
      CO bets $2.09, Hero calls $2.09

      River: ($7.67) 4 (2 players)
      CO bets $10.06 and is all-in, Hero folds

  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi StaticMoth,

      While the river fold may be fine I am wondering why we are not raising the turn to gain some value from 2p/sets and at the same time not have more than a PSB left on the river.

      For the call to be reasonable we need him to have more than just Qx or AQ. He needs, like you said, to shove missed draws (pair+draw as bluff) or sets/2p for "value'.