[NL20-NL50] NL50 AQ turn

    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Reproduzir mão

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      SB:
      $12.35
      BB:
      $50.00
      MP2:
      $53.30
      MP3:
      $62.88
      CO (Hero):
      $49.75
      BU:
      $43.13


      Preflop: Hero is CO with A, Q.
      MP2 folds, MP3 raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 3 folds, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($3.75) J, 6, A (2 players)
      MP3 bets $2.00, Hero calls $2.00.

      Turn: ($7.75) 3 (1 players)
      MP3 checks

      Villain 1.2k hands
      21/18
      open MP 16%
      fold to 3bet 79%
      cbet flop 58%
      cbet turn 33% (12)
      WTSD 30%
      WWSF 48%

      Should I bet turn or just cbh?
  • 6 replies
    • DecMate
      DecMate
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.01.2009 Posts: 939
      I don't see why we should check back, i'd say we're beating 99.999% of his range.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hey,

      I also think turn is a value bet. He goes to showdown a bit often so there should be value in a bet. That said, I disagree we are beating so much of his range as DecMate said.

      Depending on how villain constructs his range, he could actually check/call AK, AJ, A6s, A3s. He doesn't do it 100% of the time and (good for us) he doesn't check/raise those because it would be way too thin. This means we can bet for value (it's not that thin but we don't beat all his range on the turn) and have an easier play on the river as well. Now he can still call midpair with a flushdraw but that usually folds on a river bet if we check back turn.

      If you check back turn, why would you do it? What would you be trying to acheive?
    • skullqueen
      skullqueen
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.11.2008 Posts: 237
      .
    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      The idea of chk back turn is that I didn't see many worse hands that he would c/c.
    • DecMate
      DecMate
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.01.2009 Posts: 939
      I was being sarcastic when i said 99.9999%.
      Just the majority of it we are ahead of, an if he has 33% on the turn he would most likely be barreling AK/AJ
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Originally posted by double2
      The idea of chk back turn is that I didn't see many worse hands that he would c/c.
      Well, yes.. there aren't that many.. probably AT, Jx with clubs, QQ with clubs and KK with clubs. What do you acheive by checking though? You have to compare betting to checking. The value is there, it's not huge... but then if you check, do you induce bets from worse? Do people take bet/check/bet line as a bluff OOP? If he bets, does he bet all those worse hands that can call a turn bet? If you check and he just feels confident in betting his AK on the river you don't acheive anything, you just miss value.