[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 99 oop on ugly board

    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      Prima, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      CO: $36.39 (72.8 bb)
      BTN: $30.33 (60.7 bb)
      SB: $21 (42 bb)
      BB: $27.25 (54.5 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $106.61 (213.2 bb)
      MP: $14.25 (28.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9 9
      Hero raises to $1.50, MP folds, CO calls $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

      Flop: ($5.25) 3 5 7 (3 players)
      Hero bets $3.50, CO calls $3.50, BTN folds

      Turn: ($12.25) 6 (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $6, Hero folds


      Anon table.

      CO and BTN both fish on small sample.

      Vbet turn, and ch/fold blank river?
      As I have very little info on him, it's hard to assign him a range, but it could be something like this on the turn, or maybe a bit more narrow...

      Board: 3:club: 5:heart: 7:spade:  6:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    51.51%  47.32%   4.19% { 9d9s }
      CO     48.49%  44.30%   4.19% { JJ-33, A7s-A2s, T7s, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 42s+, A7o-A2o, 98o }
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      As a general rule of thumb, when Flop has a 3 straight and Turn brings a 4th straight card, I almost always c/f one pair hands on the Turn.

      About whether that rule is applicable here, the great thing is that
      1) We block 98s
      2) The board is low and people don't play hands like 56s 46s 34s 54s too much as compared to the middle and high suited connectors.

      If we think he floats us on the Flop with many unpaired hands then I could see an argument for c/c Flop.

      HOWEVER

      this is a 3way pot. While he seems like a fish, we can't be certain how wide he is floating us. Does he turn 7X or 6X into a bluff? That would also help us in our decision. Obviously you don't have enough reads so I would just assume that they don't. And I give up here.

      So, c/f > c/c > bet
      Betting is like the worst line because we simply do not have value against his calling range (I believe we are an underdog).

      You can try stoving 99 vs his possible calling range of many 2 pairs, sets, straights and perhaps some 88 78 68 type of hands. I think we should not have more than 40% equity if I'm not wrong.
    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      Originally posted by mbml
      You can try stoving 99 vs his possible calling range of many 2 pairs, sets, straights and perhaps some 88 78 68 type of hands. I think we should not have more than 40% equity if I'm not wrong.
      Even if we assume he would call A7 on this turn (could be too optimistic), and that he would never fold an overpair (could be realistic), we only have 33% vs his calling range.

      Board: 7:spade: 5:heart: 3:club:  6:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    33.23%  29.23%   4.00% { 9d9s }
      CO     66.77%  62.77%   4.00% { JJ-33, A7s, A4s, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 42s+, A7o, A4o, 98o }


      If we take out A7, it's even worse.

      Board: 7:spade: 5:heart: 3:club:  6:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    26.45%  22.53%   3.93% { 9d9s }
      CO     73.55%  69.62%   3.93% { JJ-33, A4s, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 42s+, A4o, 98o }
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Great, it looks more reasonable/realistic now.