[NL2-NL10] trip 9's vs c/r otr

    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      this was actually a pretty good play from villain, turning his TPTK into a bluff otr. i almost folded, but then i realize he doesnt really rep much,

      JJ he 3bets pre/raises flop
      66/99 probably raises flop
      J9s- only 1 combo and raises flop
      K9/Q9 - would be pretty thin shove on the river imo
      flushes - he is a pretty solid reg, and i doubt he is bad enough to call FD's oop on the turn on paired board


      but tbh if he shoved like $10 on the river, im probably folding

      iPoker - $0.10 NL (6 max) FAST - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BB: $10.00
      UTG: $15.78
      MP: $7.77
      CO: $18.00
      Hero (BTN): $18.69
      SB: $16.93

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has T:club: 9:club:

      UTG calls $0.10, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.40, fold, BB calls $0.30, fold

      Flop: ($0.95, 2 players) 9:heart: 6:diamond: J:heart:
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.70, BB calls $0.70

      Turn: ($2.35, 2 players) 9:diamond:
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB calls $1.50

      River: ($5.35, 2 players) 3:heart:
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.67, BB raises to $7.40, Hero calls $4.73

      BB shows J:spade: A:spade: (Two Pair, Jacks and Nines) (Pre 62%, Flop 77%, Turn 5%)
      Hero shows T:club: 9:club: (Three of a Kind, Nines) (Pre 38%, Flop 23%, Turn 95%)
      Hero wins $18.81
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Zumpar,

      Preflop: looks good

      Flop: Looks fine.

      Turn: Looks fine

      River: Do we think that he turned his hand into a bluff there or overvalued his TPTK? I agree that it's hard to imagine him shoving AJ here for value.

      I would say that villain can still have FDs on river but most likely not many and the non not FDs most likely don't shove.

      So I'd say his range for shoving is A6hh, AQhh (if he doesn't 3-bet pre), along with possibly A9s (1 combo).

      And as you said he probably doesn't raise hands like Q9/K9s (if he even has them) and if he does that he may raise 89s that we beat anyway.

      So with all that being said we get 25% odds to call so he only needs to bluff/raise worse 1 in 4 for us to break even.