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[NL2-NL10] TT - Should I bet river?

    • ramadas
      ramadas
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.09.2011 Posts: 462
      What is the probability, that he has flush? Should I bet the river?

      Poker Stars $2.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 2028004
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (UTG): $2.10 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 2.2, Hands: 5225
      UTG+1: $1.28 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 6.0, Hands: 76
      MP1: $1.61 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 1.5, Hands: 94
      MP2: $0.56 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 33, 3B: 0, AF: 3.0, Hands: 6
      CO: $2.07 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.5, Hands: 8
      BTN: $2.00 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 10, 3B: 14, AF: 0.0, Hands: 10
      SB: $2.05 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 14, 3B: 5, AF: 1.8, Hands: 147
      BB: $2.00 - VPIP: 0, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 2

      Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG with T :heart: T :spade:
      Hero raises to $0.08, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.08, 5 folds

      Flop: ($0.19) 7 :heart: 5 :diamond: 4 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.18, MP1 calls $0.18

      Turn: ($0.55) 4 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.52, MP1 calls $0.52

      River: ($1.59) 2 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP1 checks

      Final Pot: $1.59
      Hero shows T :heart: T :spade:
      MP1 mucks 6 :spade: 5 :spade:
      Hero wins $1.53
      (Rake: $0.06)
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Ramadas,

      Preflop: looks good

      Flop: I like our big bet.

      Turn: Big bet is good to get value/protect.

      River: Considering we have about only 0.83 left I would put him all in. There's no way he folds 7x, 88, 99, 66, 5x for 1/2 pot bet.

      And the chance for him to have a backdoor flush is smaller because certain diamond hands fold the flop.

      If you want to know exactly, compared to his overall range, simply plug this hand into equilab and assign a range to villain. Then you will see how often he has a flush.