[NL2-NL10] aqo

    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
      SB ($4.19)
      BB ($5)
      UTG ($6.10)
      UTG+1 ($4.22)
      CO ($5.88)
      Hero ($5)

      Dealt to Hero Q:diamond: A:spade:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.52, SB calls $0.50, BB calls $0.47, CO calls $0.37

      FLOP ($2.08) 2:spade: Q:spade: 5:spade:

      SB bets $3.67 (AI), BB folds, CO raises to $5.36 (AI), Hero calls $4.48 (AI)

      TURN ($14.71) 2:spade: Q:spade: 5:spade: 4:diamond:

      RIVER ($14.71) 2:spade: Q:spade: 5:spade: 4:diamond: 6:heart:

      CO shows 9:spade: 7:spade:
      (Pre 25%, Flop 65.9%, Turn 83.3%)

      Hero shows Q:diamond: A:spade:
      (Pre 45%, Flop 33.2%, Turn 16.7%)

      SB shows 7:heart: 7:diamond:
      (Pre 30%, Flop 0.9%, Turn 0.0%)

      CO wins $13.73

      CO


      SB


      Looks standard
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Dracsharp,

      Preflop: While 3-betting AQo is standard CO vs BTN in aggressive games it shouldn't be standard here simply because very often we turn our hand into a bluff. And on top of that we have a fish in the blinds that we'd like to stay in the pot.

      As played we need ~32% equity to call. What do you think CO calls a 3-bet and then an overbet flop shove with you, the 3-bettor still left to act (holding As).

      I think his range is sets, flushes and maybe TPTK or QKs. Against something like this: 55,22,AQs,KsJs,KsTs,JsTs,Ks9s,Js9s,Ts9s,Ks8s,Js8s,Ts8s,9s8s,Ks7s,9s7s,8s7s,Ks6s,8s6s,7s6s,Ks4s,Ks3s,AQo,KsQd,KsQh,KsQc we have 42% equity.

      Let's throw in some similar range for SB plus random cards and overall versus the two of them we have something like 34-37% equity. So our call is a bit above break even thus making it a slight +EV high variance short term call.

      If CO does not call KsQ or AQ then we drop down to 29% equity.