[NL2-NL10] NL5 KK fat value

    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Villain has 47% call pfr, 16% fold flop cbet, pretty much a total whale.

      PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      UTG+1: $1.40
      MP: $3.14
      MP+1: $1.88
      CO: $3.65
      BTN: $3.85
      SB: $12.86
      Hero (BB): $5.23
      UTG: $2.00

      SB posts SB $0.02, Hero posts BB $0.05

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has K:heart: K:diamond:

      fold, fold, MP calls $0.05, fold, CO calls $0.05, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, CO calls $0.25

      Flop: ($0.67, 2 players) 9:diamond: 4:club: 2:diamond:
      Hero bets $0.55, CO calls $0.55

      Turn: ($1.77, 2 players) 2:spade:
      Hero bets $1.20, CO calls $1.20

      River: ($4.17, 2 players) A:spade:
      Hero bets $1.60, CO calls $1.60 and is all-in

      Hero shows K:heart: K:diamond: (Two Pair, Kings and Twos) (Pre 70%, Flop 82%, Turn 93%)
      CO shows A:diamond: T:spade: (Two Pair, Aces and Twos) (Pre 30%, Flop 18%, Turn 7%)
      CO wins $7.06

      Mostly I think my value betting is fine but the thing is when the river hit for some reason I felt pretty confident he hit,. The problem is I am not 100% sure he hit the ace even though I have strong gut feeling he did. Should I check and hope he bets half his stack instead of shoving or is this wasting value vs 9x, JJ- type hands? Since I basically have to call a shove anyway and I think that's what he's gonna do so I just do it myself and hope I'm wrong.

      Also should I jam turn or try to pot commit him so he has to call most rivers?
  • 2 replies
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      First I want to ask you what strategy do you play - you have 100bb here and according to MSS you should have 40.

      I like your preflop raise and sizing is good.

      On the flop betting is fine.

      I like your turn bet too.
      Betting this much leaves him with less than 1/2 pot size on the river so he would be more inclined to call us with more hands and also we take more value out of draws.

      The river obviously sucks, because now A9/Adxd beats us.
      Overall, I think that he won't fold a made hand here so I don't mind shoving here.
      If we check though, I think we have to fold because he seems passive and I don't expect him to bet worse hands.

      Best,
      Plamen
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Cheers for the evaluation. Yeah, sorry this is not supposed to be in MSS, I mistakenly put it in the wrong forum, I play BSS 100bb deep.