[NL2-NL10] Nl10 Kk

    • TheWinnerTakesItAll
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 1,187
      Opponent stats 49/1 AF:0,3 WTSD:38 W$SD:53 fold to f cbet:46 after 219 hands.

      What do you think about thin value bet on the river?

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      UTG2 (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is UTG2 with K, K.
      UTG1 calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, 7 folds, UTG1 calls $0.40.

      Flop: ($1.15) 6, 3, J (2 players)
      UTG1 checks, Hero bets $0.82, UTG1 calls $0.82.

      Turn: ($2.79) A (2 players)
      UTG1 checks, Hero checks.

      River: ($2.79) 8 (2 players)
      UTG1 checks, Hero ???
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      At the very least I would bet 2 streets. I see no reason to believe that he has an Ace here very often. So your options are to bet F and T or bet F and R.

      I'm actually considering bet bet bet here. But I wouldn't make a large river bet, maybe half pot or slightly smaller. I think he doesn't have too many AX and yet he never folds JX too often.

      Why do i say that?
      1) High WTSD = He is a calling station. He should find it hard to let go of his hand
      2) Normal looking Fold to Flop Cbet = I don't think he has too many Ace highs here. But one thing to take note of the Fold to F cbet stat is that it is a function of the player's preflop range too. Given that this guy is 49/1, his preflop range is significantly weaker than a normal 25/20 player. So Perhaps we should expect him to have a higher Fold to F cbet of 50% or more as opposed to the normal range of 40-50% for a regular.

      Maybe he's floating a lot of AX hands on the Flop? That could be the case but I don't think he has too many of them.