[NL20-NL50] FR NL25 Riverspot vs Fish

    • Coreprime
      Joined: 24.06.2007 Posts: 368
      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      BU (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BU with A, 8.
      3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.00, SB folds, BB calls $1.75, MP2 folds.

      Preflop: I bluff 3bet with a blocker in position vs. a regular that has a fold to 3bet of 74% in MP. The reg folds, a fish in the BB calls
      The fish has stats of 55/10 over a sample of 20 hands, so I dont have any reliable postflop stats on him.

      Flop: ($4.85) 8, 3, 4 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3.50, BB calls $3.50.

      I bet for value w. TPTK

      Turn: ($11.85) 3 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $8.00, BB calls $8.00.

      I bet again and expect him to call with a worse 8, FDs, 56, maybe even OCs

      River: ($27.85) 3 (2 players)
      BB bets $10.00,Hero ?

      Now he bets, I split with all 8x hands. A bluff with missed spades or 56 would be a terrible play becaue he cant expect me to fold on this board runout, but Im not sure if he knows this.
      He also has Overpairs in his range for sure. I doubt that he blockbets hands that I beat like 66 or 77.
      I get 3.8:1 on the call. So I need about 21% Equity
      I gave him overpairs (99-QQ), 3 combos of missed spades and some 8x hands that I split.

      Board: 4h8s3s3h3c
      Equity Win Tie
      Villain 83.87% 77.42% 6.45% { QQ-99, 98s, 87s, AsKs, AsQs, As2s }
      Hero 16.13% 9.68% 6.45% { Ah8c }

      With only 16% EQ, the call is -EV.
      If I give him 77 in his range it becomes +EV, but I dont think this is realistic. Hard to say cause he is 55/10 and I dont know anything about him.
      Overall, I think its a fold. What do you guys think ?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Cbet on this Flop could be fine, a fish's coldcalling range here is very wide. If this guy were a reg I would just give up cos his range is highly weighted towards pocketpairs.

      I would not barrel the Turn and I would just give up.