[NL2-NL10] AKo – Thin Value-Betting Against Fish On Scary Boards

    • Raknyo
      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 422
      PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 48 BB
      SB: 121.5 BB
      BB: 100 BB
      UTG: 130 BB
      Hero (MP): 254.5 BB
      CO: 100 BB

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has A:heart: K:club:

      UTG calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 3 BB

      Flop: (9.5BB, 2 players) 7:spade: A:spade: K:heart:
      UTG checks, Hero bets 6.5 BB, UTG calls 6.5 BB

      Turn: (22.5BB, 2 players) T:diamond:
      UTG checks, Hero bets 16 BB, UTG calls 16 BB

      River: (54.5BB, 2 players) J:spade:
      UTG checks, Hero?

      UTG shows 8:spade: T:heart: (One Pair, Tens) (Pre 36%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
      Hero shows A:heart: K:club: (Two Pair, Aces and Kings) (Pre 64%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
      Hero wins 52.5 BB

      PF: Easy bet for value, should have made it at least 5BB versus this fish.

      F: Clear bet for value and protection, could have bet bigger here as well, say 7BB.

      T: Only hand that over-takes mine is QJ and since that is such a smaller part of my opponent's range then I bet again for value and protection. Think my bet sizing is good here, I gain maximum value from weaker hands and protect my hand adequately.

      R: Now this is where it gets interesting, Qx and the flush draw gets there but UTG checks to me which makes me think that I'm good. The only Qx hands which would make sense would be QsXs, QT and Q7, and since there are so many other hands which UTG could make a crying call with, then I think it's OK to justify a half-pot river bet.

      Is think OK since I'm versus a fish or this totally over-playing my hand?
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Raknyo,

      Preflop: looks fine.

      Flop: Since UTG is fishy and this board has 2 big cards his range for calling won't change much if we bet bigger (although I have no idea how he called T8o there).

      Turn: We can easily get more value so betting is fine. Most of his range is FDs, Ax, Kx.

      River: I'd bet/fold river here. Since he limped/called UTG he can have all Ax hands. It's true that all draws got there but he still has worse 2p/1p that can call.

      I wouldn't be more than 30 BB.