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[NL20-NL50] NL25sh - KJo std?

    • Farmarchist
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640

      Guy donks 63% of the time so far.

      Is it fine to raise the flop for value and just call the turn?

      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2029984
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $27.74 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 20, 3B: 13, AF: 1.9, Hands: 411
      SB: $23.44 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 5, 3B: 6, AF: 3.4, Hands: 40
      BB: $14.29 - VPIP: 45, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 1.2, Hands: 29
      Hero (UTG): $25.00 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 15, 3B: 6, AF: 3.6, Hands: 546516
      CO: $25.53 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 22, 3B: 10, AF: 14.0, Hands: 79

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with J :club: K :diamond:
      Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

      Flop: ($1.75) K :heart: 7 :diamond: 3 :diamond: (2 players)
      SB bets $1.00, Hero raises to $3.25, SB calls $2.25

      Turn: ($8.25) 9 :diamond: (2 players)
      SB bets $1.00, Hero calls $1

      River: ($10.25) Q :club: (2 players)
      SB bets $2.00, Hero calls $2
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909

      I definitely agree with flop play against such a player.

      Turn is debatable whether you can raise for value. You have Kd for extra equity in case you are not ahead. Now we need to think of hands worse than yours that call the raise. Do you think he calls one diamond hands such as: A7, A3, 88, TT? I think for sure he calls Kx with a diamond and probably Kx without a diamond as well. If in these 40 hands you felt he likes to go to showdown very often I would elect to raise for value to around 4.5 on the turn. Otherwise, calling is also a fine option. I do consider that he might have you beat but there are few hands AND most will not bet/call on turn but bet/raise so it will be an easy decision then.

      On the river, I think you have no option but a call again. You will be beat sometimes but definitely good enough to call. Had you raised the turned, I actually expect that to have next to no 'free showdown' benefits against this player because he's already shown a tendency to donkbet a lot. This means that when you do raise, you need a plan for river donks. You obviously consider how board changes on that card but I'd be mainly inclined to call a small bet and fold against a donk shove or pot sized bet.