[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH - AQ: vs over donkbet river

    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      49/8/0.8af
      5% 3bet
      33% fold vs cbet flop
      25% fold vs cbet turn (4)
      45% agg% river
      88 hands


      BB: $33.19 (132.8 bb)
      UTG: $26.13 (104.5 bb)
      MP: $25 (100 bb)
      Hero (CO): $43.06 (172.2 bb)
      BTN: $10.34 (41.4 bb)
      SB: $15.64 (62.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A:club: Q:heart:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.65, 2 folds, BB calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.40) Q:diamond: 2:heart: A:diamond: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.10, BB calls $1.10

      Turn: ($3.60) 5:heart: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3.10, BB calls $3.10

      River: ($9.80) 9:club: (2 players)
      BB bets $12.75, Hero ?
  • 3 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      2 busted flushdraws, a few busted gutshots, one completed on the turn, high river aggression, you have the top of your bluffcatching range => call. I expect you to win more than the about 40% required.

      Whenever fishy players take random actions and you cannot find bluffs in their range, just fold. Whenever you can find some bluffs and you have a reasonable bluffcatcher call imo. You need to find those bluffs though. In this specific case the bluffs can be KJ, JT, Kh7h, Kd7d, etc. You get my idea I hope...
    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      I wasnt considering the fold.
      I think the call its the best, but i thought the shove could be an option to, because he can have a good amount of worst 2 pairs.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      When he overbets I doubt he does it with enough 2pair. You also have to think of the sets and the straight in his range. He basically needs to bet/call enough of those 2pair to shove, not just 1-2 combos of them.

      There's another problem. We aren't completely sure of his range and a bet like this is quite polarizing. This means it's very strong or air. If there were no busted draws I'd argue a fold with top2 tbh, in which case I definitely wouldn't raise here. If you call and he shows you AJ or some medium value hand then you can readjust from what I said and raise for value. The value will still be on the thin side because you expect to lose sometimes when you get called.